Employment Data Puzzle: Institutional Forecasts Diverge, September Non-Farm Payrolls Likely to Fall Short of Expectations

As the September non-farm employment data approaches, Wall Street institutions are divided. According to Jintou Data reports, several institutions have vastly different judgments on the employment growth trend, with the most optimistic and most pessimistic voices differing significantly.

Market Consensus Emerges, Employment Growth Weak

A Reuters survey and market consensus point in the same direction: September non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 50,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. This expectation essentially reflects the current market equilibrium. However, Goldman Sachs is notably bullish, predicting an increase of 80,000. In contrast, U.S. Bank and Nationwide are more conservative, expecting increases of 40,000 and 40,000-50,000 respectively.

Labor Market Cooling but Not Crashing

Rockefeller forecasts a 50,000 increase in September non-farm payrolls, believing the employment market will remain relatively stable. However, Indeed Hiring Lab warns that this month’s non-farm employment report is unlikely to have major surprises, and the labor market’s weakness is unlikely to change in the short term.

Loyola Marymount University points out that although the hiring slowdown trend will continue, the market has not fallen into a recession. Nationwide describes the current corporate attitude as “neither hiring nor firing,” reflecting employers’ cautious outlook on the economy.

Worries and Opportunities Intertwined

Fannie Mae Credit predicts a 55,000 increase in September non-farm employment, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, believing the employment market is cooling but shows no signs of collapse. Standard Chartered Bank offers a different perspective, expecting employment data from September to November to remain weak, and this weakness could serve as leverage to persuade the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further.

Pansen Macro points out that the current data vacuum period may intensify the negative impact of non-farm data. Goldman Sachs further warns that October data carries hidden risks, expecting a decline of 50,000 in October non-farm payrolls.

Data Reveals Employment Outlook

RSM Consulting believes that, based on combined data from September along with revisions for July and August, the employment outlook is slightly better than expected. However, the organization also emphasizes that the labor market is still struggling to support growth, with momentum clearly weakening.

Overall, the employment market is at a delicate equilibrium. The steady outlook from mainstream institutions like Rockefeller contrasts with Goldman Sachs’ optimism, revealing the market’s complex assessment of economic prospects. Whether September’s data can surpass expectations will be a key indicator in determining subsequent policy directions.