🚨Beware of major fluctuations——Options contracts worth 236 billion BTC expire on the 26th

Let's look at the key data:
The nominal value of call options is 17.1 billion.
The notional value of put options is 6.47 billion.
The intrinsic value of IMT is only 13%.
The maximum pain point reaches 96000

①Call Options > Put Options
Bullish is 2.65 times bearish, indicating a high expectation for a sudden surge.

②Low intrinsic value
The intrinsic value of IMT is only 13%, meaning that only 13% of the contracts are profitable at the current price of 88,000, while 87% become worthless unless there is an extreme market movement. This data indicates that institutions are also uncertain about significant fluctuations.

③96,000 maximum pain point
Theoretically, if it pulls to 96,000, the market maker makes the most (with a total intrinsic value of less than 100 million), but there is still a gap of 8,000, so we can only see if there are any favorable news in the next 2 days.

❌The most concerning aspect is the 87% out-of-the-money, with a slight risk of gamma squeeze.

If BTC fluctuates between 85,000 and 100,000, most orders do not need to be exercised. If it breaks upwards past 100,000, market makers will be forced to sell BTC to customers at a low price, triggering passive buying to chase the rise. If it breaks down below 85,000, it will trigger selling.

To summarize: Although the options contract expiration volume on the 26th is large, the in-the-money contracts are small. However, liquidity is thin at the end of the year, and fluctuations can be amplified, so one should be cautious of one-sided market trends. 87% of the out-of-the-money contracts will amplify fluctuations. After all, the 23.6 billion in volume is 8 times the daily trading volume of BTC, setting a record for 2025.