#机构比特币持仓策略 Seeing BitMine's recent operations, what flashes in my mind is the scene on the eve of the bull run in 2017. Back then, it was the same—institutions increased the position when market sentiment was at its most pessimistic, while retail investors and so-called "smart money" were still crazily shorting. The irony of history lies here.

In one week, an increase of 138,000 ETH, with a growth rate 156% faster than four weeks ago. This data clearly indicates that they are betting on a cycle turnaround. The Fusaka upgrade, the Federal Reserve's policy shift, and the mitigation of liquidation shocks... individually, these triggers may not seem significant, but combined they send a signal—fundamentals are quietly recovering.

The most interesting part is the comparison. On one side, the market value of ETH held by BitMine has surged to $11.3 billion, nearing the long-term target of 5%, with $880 million in cash still on hand to keep investing; on the other side, the "smart money" tracked by Nansen is increasing short positions, while spot ETFs continue to experience net outflows. It’s like two gamblers looking at the same card but making completely opposite choices.

I have experienced several cycles, and the most profound lesson I have learned is that when institutions continue to buy during the coldest times in the market, while retail investors are shorting, this often indicates a turning point in the cycle. It's not to say that BitMine is definitely right, but this determination of "putting money in" represents a long-term bet on the future. Short-term fluctuations cannot shake this confidence at all.

The key is to distinguish clearly - this is not a spur-of-the-moment hype, but an increase the position in the context of qualitative improvements in the fundamentals. Upgrade completed, policies warming up, time cooling off... each of these is substantial. At this point in time, going against the market has become the most rational choice.