Important Update 2025.12.24

Old friends should still remember that on 11.21, when I indicated that the 80600 level had stopped falling, I said: "The rally starting from 80600 is a rebound, not a new upward trend."

Yesterday, I mentioned that if there is no strong upward movement within 12 hours, the market will turn bad. Last night, when it fell to 86600 and rebounded, I tweeted again emphasizing that this rebound is very important and will directly determine the market direction.

Currently, the rebound is not performing well. There are two possible scenarios for BTC's subsequent movement, as shown in the chart:

Blue route: The daily-level rebound starting from 80600 is not over. In the next few days, after BTC finds the end of its correction, there will be another wave of upward movement at the same level as 80600-94600. After completing the rebound from 126000-80600 in mid-January, it will continue to fall until March 2026.

Red route: The 80600-94600 range is a rebound targeting the decline shown in the red box from 107500-80600, not the decline from 126000-80600. If this is the case, BTC will create a new low below 80600 before starting a daily-level rebound.

The entire rise from 80600 to 94600 has already been perfectly captured. The two attempts at 85000 and 86500 have also yielded slight profits. Next, just patiently observe the market trend, and once the trend emerges, follow it promptly.

I do not have an obsession with target prices. Focusing on what is happening in the market, thinking about the most likely trend based on the current situation, and then adopting corresponding strategies is more important to me. Assuming internally that a certain high/low point will definitely be reached, and letting this obsession dominate trading, can cause a loss of risk awareness. Sooner or later, it will lead to significant losses.
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