Gold Outlook 2026: Is it Approaching $5000?

Gold market in 2025 experienced an unprecedented strong performance, with prices breaking through the $4,300 per ounce level in October before retreating toward $4,000 later. This sharp movement raised many questions about what awaits the yellow metal in 2026, and whether it will surge further toward $5,000, or if the downward trend has already begun.

In reality, the answer depends on a complex set of economic and geopolitical factors that will determine the actual price trajectory over the next twelve months.

Why did gold rise so much in 2025?

The average gold price in 2025 was around $3,455 per ounce, but behind this figure lies a story of a sharp rally starting from below $3,000 to reach a peak of $4,300. This rise did not happen out of nowhere.

First, global central banks strongly supported demand. These institutions added 244 tons of gold in Q1 2025 alone, a 24% increase over the five-year average. No surprise there, as the percentage of central banks holding gold reserves increased from 37% in 2024 to 44% in 2025.

Second, individual investors turned to gold unprecedentedly. Bloomberg data showed that about 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time last year. Gold ETF assets rose to $472 billion, with holdings reaching 3,838 tons.

Third, geopolitical concerns played a triggering role. Rising trade tensions and regional conflicts increased demand for the safe-haven metal by 7% year-over-year, according to Reuters.

Factors supporting a rise to $5,000 in 2026

1. Easy monetary policy

The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in December 2024, continuing this trend until October 2025 with a total reduction of 100 basis points. Market expectations point to an additional 25 basis point cut in December 2025.

If this trend continues into 2026, it could lead to a key interest rate reaching 3.4% by year-end, according to BlackRock estimates. Such a decrease reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, i.e., the amount investors forgo by not earning interest.

2. Weakening US dollar

The dollar index declined about 7.64% from its peak at the start of 2025 through November. When the dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting demand. This trend is expected to persist if US interest rates remain low.

3. Declining real yields

US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% in early 2025 to 4.07% in November. Stable real yields at low levels around 1.2% make gold more attractive.

4. Rising sovereign debt

Global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP, according to the IMF. This pushes investors and central banks to seek safe havens, a role gold plays with distinction.

5. Supply-demand gap

Total gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons, a 3% annual increase, but mine production did not keep pace. Mine output was only 856 tons in Q1, a slight 1% annual rise.

This disparity was exacerbated by a 1% decline in recycled gold, as owners of gold coins preferred to hold onto their assets in anticipation of higher prices.

Official forecasts from major banks

HSBC: expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4,600.

Bank of America: raised the forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an expected average of $4,400.

Goldman Sachs: adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce supported by gold ETF inflows and central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan: predicts gold reaching around $5,055 by mid-2026.

Most analysts converge around a range of $4,800 to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average annual price between $4,200 and $4,800.

Is there a risk of a downward correction?

Despite the overall optimism, serious warnings exist. HSBC pointed to a possible correction toward $4,200 in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits, but ruled out a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned that prices staying above $4,800 could test the market’s “price credibility,” i.e., gold’s ability to maintain its levels amid weak industrial demand.

Current technical picture of gold

Gold closed November 2025 at $4,065 per ounce, after touching a high of $4,381 in October.

The price currently holds the main short- and medium-term upward trendline. The $4,000 level acts as strong support; breaking below could open the way toward $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement level).

On the resistance side, the first level is $4,200, then $4,400 and $4,680.

The RSI indicator is steady at 50, indicating a neutral market with no clear bias. The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

Technical analysis suggests gold will trade within a range of $4,000 to $4,220 in the near term, with the overall outlook remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Gold price forecasts in the Middle East region

Central banks in the region have begun increasing their gold reserves. The Central Bank of Egypt added 1 ton in Q1, and the Central Bank of Qatar added 3 tons.

Based on global forecasts indicating gold approaching $5,000:

• In Egypt: the price is likely to reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce, an increase of 158.46% from current levels.

• In Saudi Arabia: the price may range between 18,750 and 19,000 SAR per ounce, assuming a stable exchange rate.

• In the UAE: the estimate is close to 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

Note that these forecasts depend on assumptions such as stable exchange rates and continued global demand without major economic fluctuations.

Summary: Will gold prices rise in the coming days?

All evidence strongly suggests that gold prices are poised to rise toward $5,000 in 2026, supported by a weak dollar, declining interest rates, and increased central bank purchases. But the path is not entirely smooth.

Prices may experience short-term fluctuations and corrections, especially if investors start taking profits from high levels. The key is to keep the price above the main upward trendline and the support level of $4,000.

Ultimately, the yellow metal remains in a strong position, and the overall trend for the next year favors buyers, provided no sudden economic or geopolitical upheaval occurs.