What will the international gold trend look like in 2025? Starting from $4,400

Recently, the international gold market has been booming. After breaking through $4,400 in October to hit a new high, the market remains hot. However, some are chasing the high, while others are watching cautiously. The core questions are still the same: **Will the international gold trend continue to rise? Is it too late to enter now?**

To understand this wave of market movement, we need to first grasp the logic behind gold price changes. Simply put, this gold rally has approached the highest in nearly 30 years, surpassing the 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. There are three main core reasons driving this surge.

## The Three Main Reasons Driving the International Gold Trend

**Risk-off sentiment caused by tariff policies**

Since Trump took office, a series of tariff policies directly triggered this gold surge. The successive policy uncertainties have heightened risk-off sentiment in the market. Based on historical experience (such as the US-China trade war in 2018), gold prices during such periods of policy uncertainty typically see a short-term surge of 5 to 10%.

**Expectations of Fed rate cuts**

A rate cut by the Fed would weaken the US dollar, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus increasing its attractiveness. An interesting phenomenon here is that gold prices usually show a clear negative correlation with real interest rates—simply put, **interest rate cuts → gold rises**.

According to CME interest rate tools, there is an 84.7% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting. You can use FedWatch data changes as a reference to judge the international gold trend.

**Continued gold accumulation by major central banks**

According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. In the first nine months, central banks have accumulated about 634 tons of gold. Notably, 76% of surveyed central banks believe their gold holdings will moderately or significantly increase over the next five years, and most expect the proportion of US dollar reserves to decline.

In addition, the high global debt levels (IMF data shows total global debt reaching $307 trillion in 2025) limit countries’ flexibility in interest rate policies. Monetary policy may lean more towards easing, indirectly boosting gold’s attractiveness. Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts) and media hype also temporarily drive funds into the gold market.

## How do institutions view the international gold trend?

Although recent gold prices have fluctuated, mainstream institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook.

**JPMorgan’s commodities team** considers this correction a “healthy adjustment,” raising their Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce.

**Goldman Sachs** reiterates their end-2026 target of $4,900 per ounce, maintaining a positive outlook.

**Bank of America** is more aggressive, previously raising their 2026 gold target to $5,000 per ounce. Recently, strategists stated that gold could even challenge the $6,000 mark next year.

Jewelry brands (Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook Jewelry, etc.) still quote pure gold jewelry prices above NT$1,100 per gram, reflecting market confidence.

## Can retail investors buy international gold now?

Whether to enter depends on what type of investor you are.

**If you are an experienced short-term trader**, the volatility offers good trading opportunities. With good liquidity and easy short-term judgment of ups and downs, clear momentum during surges and dips, there are plenty of profit opportunities.

**If you are a beginner wanting to play short-term**, remember to start with small amounts to test the waters—avoid blindly increasing your position. Learning to use economic calendars to track US economic data can help support your trading decisions.

**If you want to buy physical gold for the long term**, be prepared for significant fluctuations. Although the long-term trend is bullish, you need to consider whether you can tolerate the intense volatility. The average annual amplitude of gold is 19.4%, which is not lower than stocks (S&P 500 average 14.7%).

**If you want to allocate gold in your investment portfolio**, that’s fine, but don’t put all your assets into it. Gold cycles are very long; buying it as a hedge requires a 10+ year horizon to realize benefits—during which it could double or be cut in half.

**If conditions permit**, you can also hold long-term while taking advantage of price fluctuations for short-term trades, especially when volatility amplifies before and after US market data releases. However, this requires some experience and risk management skills.

Finally, a reminder: physical gold trading costs are relatively high, generally between 5% - 20%. For Taiwanese investors, foreign currency-denominated gold also involves USD/TWD exchange rate fluctuations, which may affect your returns. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket—diversification is safer.

The international gold trend indeed still has opportunities, but the key is to find a strategy that matches your risk tolerance rather than blindly following the crowd.