WTI remains under pressure at the key level of $60, with OPEC+ production increase plans being the main pressure.

2025-12-24 18:39:47

Abstract generation in progress

Asian trading hours on Wednesday morning, WTI crude oil traded around $60, with the market focusing on the upcoming production adjustment decision. According to Reuters, OPEC+ is considering a production increase plan for December, with four informed sources revealing progress in negotiations. The OPEC group is expected to agree on a daily increase of 137,000 barrels in the decision on Sunday.

Inventory data shows improvement in crude oil demand

The American Petroleum Institute (API) released its latest data on Tuesday, causing ripples in the market. For the week ending October 24, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 4 million barrels week-over-week, significantly higher than the 2.98 million barrel decline in the previous week. Year-to-date, U.S. crude reserves have experienced a net outflow of 6.4 million barrels. According to Oilprice statistics, this reflects a relatively stable domestic energy demand.

Production increase expectations intertwined with geopolitical factors

If the finalized OPEC+ production increase plan is confirmed, the group’s output target will be restored to 1.66 million barrels per day. Lipow Oil Associates President Andrew Lipow commented that this move could compensate for the production cuts caused by Russia due to U.S. sanctions. However, there is not yet a complete consensus within the group on further expansion.

Federal Reserve rate cut may become a new price variable

Traders are eyeing the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. The market widely expects the Fed to cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points in the October meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Lower interest rates typically boost the dollar’s depreciation expectations, which directly reduces the cost of dollar-denominated crude oil and activates international buyers’ purchasing power, supporting WTI to rise.

Meanwhile, the official inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will also be released on Wednesday, becoming another key focus for the oil market that day. With multiple factors at play, whether WTI can hold the $60 level remains to be seen, making $60 the focal price level for this week.

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