#美联储政策 Looking at this meeting minutes from the central bank, my thoughts have returned to those key moments in recent years.

I remember very clearly the 2015 easing cycle—starting with reserve requirement ratio cuts, the market once thought a flood of bad news was coming, but it turned out to be the starting point of that market rally. Today's wording of "moderate easing" reminds me of the logic used by the Federal Reserve after 2008, only with a different timeline. The most interesting part is that those who were pessimistic back then all ended up regretting it.

But there's a detail worth pondering: the simultaneous appearance of the three elements—Renminbi internationalization, digital RMB, and cross-border payment systems—in the meeting minutes is no coincidence. I've seen too many projects die under liquidity shocks, and I've also seen some projects reborn because policy windows opened. An easing cycle itself doesn't determine the fate of projects; what matters is the consistency between policy direction and capital flow.

Looking at history, the adjustment in 2017 happened precisely when domestic policy shifted from easing to neutral. Conversely, sustained easing expectations often prolong market cycles, giving projects with solid fundamentals more time to prove themselves. The big direction of RMB internationalization means the cross-border capital channels are widening, which will be a tangible boost to certain sectors.

However, experience tells me that policy easing is most likely to dull judgment. When liquidity is abundant, even junk projects can thrive until the cycle turns. That’s why I place more emphasis on the resilience of the projects themselves rather than short-term policy dividends.