🔥2026 is coming fast and it's worse than I expected...

Some things have changed since I posted those timeline charts, and the data now aligns perfectly with what I warned was coming.
First, the bond market is not as calm as some suggest.
The MOVE index, which is the VIX for the bond market, has recently declined, but that is not the end of volatility; it's just a pause.
The long end of the Treasury curve remains one of the biggest pressure points as the new year approaches.
Second, foreign buyers are no longer absorbing US Treasury supplies as they did before.
China continues to reduce exposure, and while Japan remains a major holder, flows are becoming more sensitive to currency movements and policy signals.
When foreign buyers pulled back in the past, issuances still sold. Today, there's much less margin for error.
Third, Japan is no longer a background story. Yen weakness forces policy responses, and every adjustment there impacts global risk tolerance trades and sovereign bond flows.
Reversal of risk tolerance trades never stays local. Pressure shifts, and US Treasuries often lead the way.
Put it all together, and the picture is simple:
– Real yields remain high.
– Term premiums are not collapsing.
– Liquidity conditions remain tight.
– Risks are priced at the sovereign level.
Stocks can rise, gold can reach new levels, commodities can go higher, but none of that contradicts what’s happening beneath the surface.
By the time GDP data is released or recession headlines confirm it, the re-pricing will already be complete.
2026 is not just another year of slowdown risks.
It’s shaping up to be a sovereign debt stress event—one that forces central banks back into the market whether they want to or not.
The timeline remains aligned, and pressure is mounting as always.
Watch bonds first; everything else follows.
On another note, I predicted the last two major market moves publicly, and when I fully exit the market, I will share that here for everyone to see.
$ZEN $DOGE $BTC