【Major Turning Point Day】The three-line closing battle begins! Bitcoin's decision today: Surge 100,000+ or plummet to 70,000?

Today (December 31, 2025) marks the closing day for the annual, quarterly, and monthly lines. The market is focused on whether the price can break through the consolidation zone and start a new round of a one-sided trend.
1. Long and short battle focus: direction of the trend change and key levels
Divergence in breakout direction
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $86,000 and $90,000 for nearly half a month, with volatility continuously narrowing. The market generally believes a direction will be chosen soon.
Bullish logic: If the close today stabilizes above $93,500, the technicals will confirm three consecutive positive signals on the annual line, and in the first quarter of next year, it may challenge $100,000-$110,000. If it breaks $92,500, it will break the downtrend, with a target of $95,000.
Bearish logic: If it falls below the support at $84,000, it may dip to the $78,000-$80,000 range, with an extreme case down to $75,000. It is recommended to place short orders around $88,200, with a stop loss at $89,500, and take profit in stages.
Core price anchor points
Key intraday support: $86,600-$87,500 (validated multiple times).
Short-term resistance: $90,500-$90,800 (breakout may trigger short stop-loss).
2. Market long and short signals and capital flow
Technical signals for long and short
The four-hour level shows a gradually rising bottom in oscillation, with Bollinger Bands narrowing and increasing the probability of volume breakout.
Bearish signals:
The daily chart repeatedly hits highs and falls back, forming a "bear trap" pattern; significant selling pressure above;
Frequent false breakouts of Ethereum (e.g., at the $2,990 resistance level), reflecting weak bullish momentum.
2026 trend projection and trading suggestions
Two core paths
Bullish scenario (probability 25-30%): Liquidity surge pushes through $100,000-$110,000, aiming for $108,000 in the first half of next year;
Deep correction scenario (probability 15-20%): If it loses $84,000, patience is needed to build a bottom at $77,000-$80,000, then rebound in Q2.
Short-term: Within the intraday range, go long at high levels and short at low levels (e.g., long at $86,500 / short at $90,500); follow the trend after key levels are broken;
Long-term: Deep correction below $80,000 can be used to position spot longs, with a target of over $100,000 next year. #加密行情预测