Institutional Investors Scale Back CSAN Stakes as Analyst Valuations Face Significant Downward Revision

Cosan S.A. - Depositary Receipt (NYSE:CSAN) has become the focus of shifting institutional sentiment, with major fund positions contracting sharply over the latest quarter. The landscape shifted dramatically when the consensus analyst forecast for CSAN declined to $4.82 per share, marking a substantial 20.49% reduction from the previous estimate of $6.07 issued in early December 2025.

The Valuation Conundrum

The revised analyst projection spans a wide spectrum, ranging from $4.21 at the conservative end to $7.03 at the optimistic end. Despite the downward adjustment, the current consensus still implies meaningful upside from CSAN’s most recent closing level of $4.04 per share, suggesting an approximately 19.42% gain if targets materialize. However, the magnitude of the downward revision has raised questions about the fundamental assumptions underlying institutional strategies in this name.

Institutional Positioning Reveals Mixed Signals

The fund community’s response has been paradoxical. While the total number of institutions holding CSAN positions decreased from 97 to 75 entities—a 22.68% contraction quarter-over-quarter—those remaining have actually increased their aggregate holdings by 1.84% to 13,783K shares. The average allocation devoted to CSAN across institutional portfolios stands at 0.03%, up 17.68% sequentially.

Major Players Adjust Their Stakes

Renaissance Technologies, holding 4,234K shares, trimmed its position from the prior 4,694K shares, representing a 10.86% reduction. The firm’s relative commitment to CSAN declined even more sharply, with portfolio weighting falling 18.46% during the period. UBS Group similarly modulated its approach, maintaining 2,551K shares against a prior 2,442K stake—a modest 4.28% increase in absolute terms, though the firm simultaneously decreased its portfolio weighting by 13.89%.

New positioning patterns emerged elsewhere. Itau Unibanco Holding entered the stock significantly, building a 658K share position from essentially no prior holding, representing a 99.94% increase and reflecting a dramatic 133,425.13% surge in portfolio allocation. Millennium Management displayed another pattern entirely, expanding from 146K shares to 488K shares—a 70.15% increase that corresponded with a 169.67% expansion in relative portfolio weight.

Monaco Asset Management maintains a 1,000K share stake in the depositary receipt, rounding out the major institutional presence.