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#预测市场发展 I just saw on Polymarket that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year is only 11%. I was completely stunned😅 A few days ago, some big players were saying the chances were quite high, and now this number makes me start to rethink...
Does it feel like market sentiment has really changed? What does an 11% probability mean—does it imply that most people are no longer optimistic about reaching $100,000 within the year? But on the other hand, the probability of dropping below $80,000 is only 24%, which seems to suggest there’s still a chance?🤔
I admit I still don’t quite understand the logic behind these predictive data. I want to ask the experts—are these probability changes due to recent market conditions, or is the prediction market itself this sensitive? It feels especially important for me as a newbie to learn how to interpret these signals!
Can someone explain why the probability of $95,000 is actually higher? Does it mean the market expects a more moderate increase? I really want to understand the market psychology behind this😊