Butterfly Effect: Survival Guide for US Stocks and the Crypto World Under China-Japan Trade Game

At the beginning of 2026, China implemented export controls on dual-use items to Japan. While this seems like a neighborhood dispute, it actually drops a heavy bomb into the "deep water zone" of the global tech supply chain.
1. Nasdaq: From "Chip Shortage" to "Material Shortage" Valuation Reshaping
Materials like gallium and germanium controlled by China are the "grain" of Japan's high-end manufacturing. Once Japan cuts off supplies, the supply chains of Nasdaq heavyweight stocks (such as NVIDIA, Apple) will face a secondary rupture risk. In the short term, the market will experience sharp pullbacks due to soaring costs and capacity anxiety. In the medium to long term, these "de-globalization" costs will push up inflation baselines, suppress the valuation ceiling of tech stocks, and funds will accelerate flow from hardware manufacturing to more resilient AI software service providers.
2. Crypto World: First risk aversion sell-off, then liquidity frenzy
The current script in the crypto market is "sentiment first." In the short term, BTC will follow US tech stocks in retreating and enter risk-avoidance mode. But the key turning point is: if trade friction triggers expectations of US-Japan economic recession, global central banks are very likely to revert to the old path of "cutting interest rates to rescue the market." At that time, Bitcoin will serve as "digital gold" and a liquidity reservoir, ushering in a new round of revenge rally.
Summary: Short-term bearish, beware of sharp declines caused by supply chain disruptions; long-term bullish, wait for the revaluation of assets driven by the second wave of global liquidity flooding.