2026-01-08 15:21:13

The US stock market plunged at the start of the year, and the logic behind this decline is actually quite straightforward.

The S&P 500 has been pulling back from its late-2023 highs, mainly due to one number: the unemployment rate. The latest data shows that in November, the unemployment rate surged to 4.6%, the highest in over four years. Think about it—at the beginning of the year, it was only 3.5%. In just ten months, it increased by 1.1 percentage points, and that speed is indeed notable.

Why is this happening? First, tariff policies have increased corporate costs, and employers' desire to hire has clearly diminished. Second, while the AI boom has boosted tech stocks, other industries are struggling, and job growth has noticeably slowed. Just look at the job vacancy data—November saw only 0.91 vacancies per unemployed person, the lowest level in 14 months.

What is the market most afraid of? Recession signals. Rising unemployment is usually a leading indicator of economic downturns, and historical patterns support this. High-valuation US stocks are particularly sensitive to such negative data; even a small gust of wind can trigger a wave of adjustments. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the end of last year, there is limited room for further easing by 2026, and investors are beginning to worry whether stagflation risks might really return.

For the crypto market and Bitcoin prices, these macro signals are equally important. Traditional risk assets are slowing down, liquidity conditions are changing, and this will inevitably impact the performance of crypto assets. In the short term, market volatility may intensify, but the key is whether the labor market can stabilize—if January’s employment report shows a rebound, it could change expectations; conversely, if the unemployment rate continues to rise, the correction could deepen.

Overall, now is the time to be vigilant about macro signals and to appropriately allocate defensive assets. While the crypto market has its own logic, its connection to the global liquidity environment has never been broken.

BTC-1.56%

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TokenVelocity

· 01-11 03:03

The unemployment rate is rising so quickly, I'm really panicking... Tariffs + AI polarization, bosses are not hiring anymore, no wonder the US stocks are plunging.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 01-09 16:36

With the unemployment rate soaring, can BTC do well? When liquidity tightens, we are bound to suffer.

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DecentralizeMe

· 01-09 14:40

Unemployment rate 4.6%? Buddy, that's just the appetizer of stagflation. It's no wonder Bitcoin can't stay stable.

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DefiPlaybook

· 01-08 15:50

Unemployment rate at 4.6%, liquidity is changing, now the crypto world is also going to feel the pain --- Once again a sign of recession, as soon as US stocks dip, we need to shift to defensive allocations. This pattern is all too familiar --- 0.91 jobs per unemployed person? Honestly, this is less stable than the APY we get from yield farming --- Tariffs + unemployment rate double whammy, the question is—can BTC still fight inflation or does it have to kneel too? --- If stagflation really returns, high-valuation assets are doomed, and the main liquidity we hold will depend on January data --- The Federal Reserve has limited room to cut interest rates, meaning they’ll need to continue tightening, so the crypto market is likely to remain volatile in the short term --- Job openings hit a new low, what does this signal? Major companies are cutting jobs to optimize, risk assets are going to cool off --- The question is—can we still harvest any yield now? The APY from liquidity mining is probably going to shrink too --- Historical patterns show that during a recession, unemployment rate is the first indicator. Is this time really different? Or will it drop another 30% before bottoming out? --- Traditional financial risk assets are slowing down, and crypto’s own logic can’t save itself. Ultimately, it still depends on liquidity

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DaisyUnicorn

· 01-08 15:50

The flower of unemployment rate has withered, and our little garden needs to quickly strengthen its defenses... --- A 4.6% unemployment rate really hurts. Liquidity is shrinking, and even BTC, this unicorn, has to shake a bit. --- Wait, tariffs + AI segmentation, isn't this just cutting the farmland of jobs? No wonder the crypto market is also doing liquidation and self-rescue. --- January's employment data feels like that decisive candlestick. Now, accumulating defensive assets is indeed the smart move. --- Ah, it's that same logic—when traditional finance sneezes, our on-chain little garden catches a cold. Stagflation returning will really be tough.

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ILCollector

· 01-08 15:49

The unemployment rate is really the biggest bomb right now. It seems like we'll have to wait and see if the January report can save the day.

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MentalWealthHarvester

· 01-08 15:45

The unemployment rate is rising so quickly, indicating that something might really be off... We still need to wait until January's employment data to see how likely a reversal is.

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rekt_but_resilient

· 01-08 15:44

The unemployment rate is soaring, no wonder everyone is selling off... Speaking of which, AI can save tech stocks, but it can't save other industries.

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MerkleDreamer

· 01-08 15:41

The unemployment rate really can't be held back anymore, jumping from 3.5% to 4.6%, this is probably a signal before a crash... When liquidity tightens, no one can run away, BTC has to shake a bit too. Tariffs + AI divergence, small and medium enterprises are really struggling this round, job vacancies have dropped to the lowest in 14 months... Instead of guessing a rebound, it's better to wait and see how the January employment data turns out, that will be the real watershed. Before a recession, the market behaves like this—overvalued assets are sold off first, and crypto is no exception. Defensive asset allocation is necessary; this adjustment might not be over in two or three days. 0.91 jobs per unemployed person... this ratio is really telling a story. I just want to know, is stagflation really back, or was it just a false alarm? The limited space of the Federal Reserve is the key point; liquidity exhaustion hitting the crypto circle is the deadliest blow. Waiting to see January's data, which will directly determine the future trend.

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MetaMisfit

· 01-08 15:39

The unemployment rate has surged to 4.6%. Now everyone is starting to have a bottom-fishing mentality, just waiting for the January report to see if there's a rebound or not.

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