The "cat and mouse game" behind the policy: the European Central Bank releases a report stating that "the high market share of Bitcoin threatens financial stability, and recommends strengthening global regulatory coordination"

1. On the surface, it’s a risk warning; in essence, it’s about power anxiety

· Bitcoin’s market cap is 2 trillion USD, less than 1/10 of the global gold market cap. How can it threaten financial stability? · The truth is: traditional central banks are discovering that their currency issuance rights are being eroded by a decentralized system. This is a challenge unseen since 2008.

2. The “Four-Step” regulatory script ① Stigmatization phase (2011-2017): “Money laundering, drug trafficking, Ponzi schemes” ② Testing control phase (2018-2022): Exchange licenses, KYC, tax tracking ③ Reconciliation and integration phase (2023-2025): Spot ETFs, custody compliance ④ Sovereign confrontation phase (2026-?): CBDC vs Bitcoin, direct clash

We are currently in the transition from phase ③ to phase ④. Every time regulators speak out, ask: what practical effect do they want to achieve?

Response strategies

· Short-term (1-4 weeks): Regulatory negative news releases → market panic and decline → often a bottom-fishing opportunity (repeated more than 7 times in history) · Medium-term (3-6 months): The tug-of-war between the “institutional bull” driven by compliance and “sovereign suppression” · Long-term: Bitcoin’s ultimate opponent is not the SEC but the central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) of various countries. That’s when the real war begins.