The prediction market sector is still in its early stages, and no platform has yet completed TGE and gone live. This means that users who enter now can participate in the initial points accumulation and airdrop expectations. If you wait for the big move to appear before entering, you usually miss out on the core value.



Trading on these platforms requires balancing probability and risk management. Here are two practical approaches:

**Strategy 1: Stable Play with High-Probability Events**
Choose events that are highly likely to occur, and take profits immediately when there's a small gain. The advantage of this approach is a high hit rate, relatively controlled risk, and earning platform points with each trade. Over time, the accumulation can be quite substantial.

**Strategy 2: Cross-Platform Hedging Arbitrage**
Look for price differences across different prediction platforms. For example, on one platform, the Yes side for an event is quoted at 51%, while the No side on another platform is quoted at 48%, totaling only 99%. This means you can place bets on both sides simultaneously and lock in a risk-free 1% profit at settlement. Even better, trades on both platforms generate points, effectively doubling the returns.

The key is to find assets with close to 50-50 odds; the smaller the probability gap, the more efficient the hedge, and the more points you can earn.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • 7
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
SchroedingersFrontrunvip
· 01-10 15:18
Sounds good, but to be honest, the theory behind hedge arbitrage is perfect, yet in practice, it's riddled with flaws. The price differences are fleeting, and it's impossible to react in time.
View OriginalReply0
Ser_APY_2000vip
· 01-09 13:53
Early players really made a fortune. Now, if you don't jump in, what are you waiting for?
View OriginalReply0
Degen4Breakfastvip
· 01-09 13:50
Now is the best time to enter and earn points; waiting for the big move to come out will be too late.
View OriginalReply0
TommyTeacher1vip
· 01-09 13:49
This arbitrage logic sounds good, but in practice, there are many pitfalls... the platform liquidity can't keep up at all, and by the time you react, the price difference is gone.
View OriginalReply0
Layer2Arbitrageurvip
· 01-09 13:45
actually if you're not running cross-chain arb bots on these prediction markets rn, you're leaving serious basis points on the table. that 1% "risk-free" spread? rookie numbers once you factor in gas optimization + MEV extraction. literally printing money with better calldata compression.
Reply0
MidsommarWalletvip
· 01-09 13:41
Early projects are indeed attractive, but the arbitrage approach is too idealized. In actual operations, can platform liquidity really allow you to smoothly enter both sides?
View OriginalReply0
NFTRegrettervip
· 01-09 13:25
Hedging arbitrage sounds great, but in practice, it's hard to find such perfect price differences, and most people still get cut.
View OriginalReply0
  • Pin

Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)