Bitcoin plunges from $126,000 peak—Has the halving cycle theory truly come to an end?

By the end of 2025, Bitcoin experienced a shocking decline. Shortly after reaching a historic high of $126,000 in October, the price underwent a more than 30% correction over the following months. As a result for the year, it was the first time since the halving that the performance was negative.

This development casts significant doubt on the reliability of the long-standing “Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory” that has been trusted in the market.

Experts’ Opinions Diverge — Will the Cycle Theory Survive?

Market opinions are sharply divided.

Vivek Sen of Bitgrow Lab points out that the fundamental factors determining Bitcoin’s price have changed. Previously, retail investor sentiment had a major influence, but now macroeconomic conditions are far more important. Based on this reasoning, he declares, “The 4-year cycle has officially ended.”

Meanwhile, Markus Thielen of 10x Research offers a different perspective. He believes the cycle itself has not disappeared but has instead evolved. We are transitioning into a new phase where halving events alone cannot determine the price, and more complex, multi-faceted factors are now intertwined. In other words, the cycle exists but is beginning to function in a different way from traditional simple patterns.

Is the Market Approaching a Turning Point?

Currently, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $92,000, and the decline from its all-time high remains significant. Whether the support level around $65,000 will hold is also a key point to watch in the coming months.

The long-term validity of the cycle theory will be further tested by future market developments. While the importance of halving events diminishes, the influence of monetary policy and macroeconomic indicators is increasingly recognized among market participants.