If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for a 2026 bear market, consider this perspective first.

Most bearish calls for 2026 lean on two pillars:

1. **The 4-year halving cycle**—the historical pattern suggesting price peaks and valleys align with Bitcoin's supply-cutting events.

2. **Long-term holder capitulation**—the assumption that massive whale and early adopter selloffs will crash the market.

But here's what matters: if either of these narratives breaks down, the entire bear-case thesis crumbles. The halving cycle has been questioned before during unconventional market conditions. As for LTH (long-term holder) dumps, on-chain data shows participation rates vary dramatically. Not every cycle repeats identically.

The real question isn't whether bears *exist*—it's whether the specific conditions that triggered past downturns are actually materializing now. Oversimplified cycle theory only gets you so far.