【SOL Structure Positioning: Breakdown and Entering Extreme Oversold Zone】

The price has effectively broken below the previous key support at 141.3 and is currently below all major moving averages, falling in a free-fall manner. MA5 (133.77) is almost coinciding with the price, indicating no resistance to the decline. RSI (15.2) has entered an extremely oversold area, signaling a short-term technical rebound is imminent, but the trend structure has been severely damaged.

Bull and Bear Logic Deduction:

· Bearish Logic (Trend Dominant): The price has sharply broken through multiple supports, confirming the mid-term upward structure has ended. Moving averages are diverging in a bearish pattern, MACD has a death cross below the zero line, and downward momentum is sufficient. Its core goal is to suppress the price below the moving average system and test the next key support levels (130.00, and even the previous low at 127.04).
· Bullish Logic (Counterattack): RSI has fallen to a rare low, and market short-term sentiment has entered panic mode, with a possibility of short-term exhaustion of the bearish force. Any organized rebound requires the price to first recover above MA10 (137.66) and stabilize to build a temporary support level. In the current environment, bullish strength is limited to a technical rebound after oversold conditions.

Key Levels and Operational Framework:

1. Resistance Zone: 135.5-137.0 (MA5 and initial rebound resistance after decline) as the first checkpoint, 138.0-140.0 (MA10 to MA20 area) as the core rebound resistance zone.
2. Support Zone: No obvious support nearby; the next key reference is in the 128.6-130.0 area (previous lows and integer support levels).
3. Trading Framework:
· Bearish Strategy: Given the extreme oversold RSI, it is not advisable to chase short positions directly. Patience should be exercised to wait for a technical rebound in the 137.0-139.0 area. If the rebound shows signs of stagnation or inability to push higher, it presents a high-value opportunity to short with the trend. Stop-loss can be set above 140.5.
· Bullish Strategy (Limited to Betting on Rebound): Due to severe oversold conditions, two scenarios can be monitored: 1) Price forms a strong bottom pattern on the hourly chart and increases volume at the current level (133-134), allowing a very small position to bet on a rebound to 136-137; 2) Price quickly drops to the 128.6-130.0 area and then rapidly pulls back, forming a long lower shadow. Both scenarios require setting stop-loss 1-1.5% below the entry point, with quick entries and exits.

Conclusion: The SOL trend has clearly turned bearish, but the short-term decline is too rapid, entering an emotional oversold stage. In trading, avoid opening new short positions at the current level and instead wait for a rebound to find a more ideal shorting opportunity. Bottom-fishing is risky and only suitable for highly risk-tolerant short-term traders with small positions.

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Disclaimer: The above analysis is for market opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency volatility is extremely high; please ensure proper risk management and independent decision-making. #周末行情分析