It has been a long time since I last revisited a Wyckoff-based analysis of BTC for everyone. Today, with some available time, I am continuing the analysis.

As of January 22, BTC is trading around the $89–90k range, significantly lower than the prior UTAD high at $126k and still well below the midpoint of the previous distribution range. From a Weekly timeframe perspective, several critical structural changes are evident. The dominant trend has shifted from an uptrend to a medium-term downtrend, with successive highs forming lower highs. Each rebound attempt has failed, characterized by narrowing spreads and declining volume. This behavior suggests that the market is no longer in a pure distribution phase but has clearly transitioned into the post-distribution stage.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, BTC is currently in Phase E, specifically early to mid Markdown, and is no longer in Phase D. The completion of Phase D was confirmed prior to January 22. Rebound attempts from the $111k area and later from $102k both failed to reclaim the Automatic Reaction zone around $117k–118k. Each subsequent rally occurred on lower volume than the previous one, signaling demand exhaustion. In addition, the key support zone between $93k and $89k, which represented the final floor of Phase D, has been decisively broken. Price is now trading below the distribution trading range. No Signs of Strength have appeared on the Weekly chart, as there has been no bullish candle with wide spread and expanding volume. Every rebound has been absorbed immediately upon entering overhead supply, confirming the phase transition from D to E according to Wyckoff principles.

Observing the current behavior in Phase E, price has declined from above $100k to $89k with little visible resistance. Rebounds remain purely technical in nature and fail to form any accumulation structure. Overall volume has not expanded aggressively, indicating a controlled markdown rather than a panic-driven sell-off. From a Wyckoff perspective, this aligns with an early-to-mid Phase E environment, where supply remains dominant, demand is passive, and price gradually drifts into lower-liquidity zones.

On the Weekly volume profile, volume consistently decreases during rebound attempts, and there is no evidence of stopping volume or climactic selling near the $89k low. The volume moving average continues to trend downward. At the same price level, multiple volume clusters observed on the chart suggest that buyers are not actively absorbing supply at current prices. Instead, market participants appear to be waiting for deeper levels, particularly around the $80–85k zone. Under Wyckoff interpretation, this implies that supply absorption has not yet occurred, Smart Money has not begun re-accumulation, and markdown remains the dominant market condition. If this were the end of Phase E, selling volume would be expected to dry up gradually and spreads would narrow significantly near the lows. Instead, while supply temporarily retreats, buyers fail to demonstrate strength. When sellers re-emerge around the $97k area, buyers are overwhelmed almost immediately.

The current price structure does not meet the minimum requirements of an Accumulation phase. A valid accumulation requires a clearly defined trading range, the presence of a Spring or Shakeout, successful tests with low volume, and a Sign of Strength breaking resistance within the range. At present, no such range has formed. The price action represents only a weak rebound within a broader downtrend, and newly formed lows have not been properly tested on low volume. As a result, any claim that the market is currently accumulating is premature.

From a supply-and-demand perspective, the $94–96k zone represents the nearest supply area and corresponds to the most recent weak rebound. If price returns to this zone with low volume, it would likely form another LPSY within Phase E. A more critical zone lies between $102k and $107k, which serves as a major structural pivot and phase-transition area. Only a strong Weekly reclaim of this zone would meaningfully challenge the current markdown structure. On the demand side, the $84–86k region represents a lower-liquidity area where the first stopping action may appear. A deeper and more significant demand zone exists between $75k and $80k, which aligns with long-term volume profile support and carries a high probability of forming a medium-term bottom, provided clear absorption is observed.

Under the primary scenario, markdown continues and Phase E remains incomplete. Price is expected to remain rejected below $96k and gradually slide into deeper demand zones, first toward $86k and potentially down to $80k. Only when selling volume dries up, spreads compress, and lows are successfully tested on low volume should discussions about Accumulation Phase A begin. A secondary scenario, with lower probability, involves a false breakdown followed by re-accumulation. This would require price to reclaim $96k with expanding volume, form a clear trading range over multiple weeks, and produce a confirmed Weekly Sign of Strength.
#nolan