XRP Technical Outlook: Descending Channel Base Forms Near Macro Demand

XRP remains within a broader corrective structure after the sharp rejection from the $3.25–$3.65 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib). That rejection marked a distribution top, followed by sustained bearish continuation and now a range-bound stabilization phase near the lower end of the structure inside a descending channel.
Recent price action shows XRP defending the $1.85–$1.77 macro demand base, where buyers have started to build a rounded accumulation structure. Momentum has stabilized, though the higher-timeframe trend has not yet flipped bullish.
EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, Short-Term Stabilization)
20 EMA: $1.99
50 EMA: $2.04
100 EMA: $2.16
200 EMA: $2.29
XRP is currently below all major EMAs, keeping the medium- to long-term structure bearish. Price is attempting to hold above the $1.88–$1.90 micro base, signaling short-term stabilization, but upside remains capped while below the 100 & 200 EMA cluster.
The $2.15–$2.30 zone represents a major dynamic resistance band.
Fibonacci & Price Structure
1 Fib: $3.66
0.786 Fib: $3.26
0.618 Fib: $2.94
0.5 Fib: $2.72
0.382 Fib: $2.49
0.236 Fib: $2.32
Fib 0: $1.77
XRP is trading just above the Fib 0 base ($1.77) and below the 0.236 Fib ($2.32), keeping price inside a range-bound recovery phase.
A clean break and acceptance above $2.15–$2.32 would open the door for a move toward $2.49–$2.72, where Fib resistance and EMA confluence align.
Failure to hold above $1.90–$1.85 would expose XRP back to the $1.77 macro demand floor.
Structural Context
Price action shows higher lows since the December bottom, suggesting early accumulation behavior. However, XRP remains capped below major EMAs and descending channel resistance, keeping the current move classified as a corrective base, not a confirmed trend reversal.
A decisive daily close above $2.32–$2.49 would be required to shift market structure toward bullish continuation.
RSI Momentum
RSI (14): 40–47
RSI is recovering from lower levels but remains near neutral, reflecting stabilizing momentum with limited bullish conviction. This supports a base-building environment rather than an impulsive breakout phase.
📊 Key Levels
Resistance
$2.15–$2.32 (0.236 Fib / EMA zone)
$2.49 (0.382 Fib)
$2.72 (0.5 Fib)
$2.94 (0.618 Fib)
Support
$1.90–$1.88 (range base)
$1.85–$1.80 (local demand)
$1.77 (Fib 0 / macro demand)
📌 Summary
XRP is forming a structured base inside a descending channel after a prolonged decline from macro supply. While downside momentum has slowed and accumulation is developing, the broader structure remains corrective unless price can reclaim $2.15–$2.49 with strength. Until that happens, XRP is likely to remain in a range-bound recovery phase with heavy resistance overhead.
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