#美伊核谈判新变量

U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks Enter a High-Risk Phase
As the U.S. and Iran prepare for nuclear negotiations scheduled for February 6 in Oman, geopolitical tension is clearly rising rather than easing.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has openly questioned the feasibility of reaching a meaningful agreement with the current Iranian leadership, stating that the regime does not truly represent the will of the Iranian people. This statement signals a hardening U.S. stance even before negotiations begin.
At the same time, satellite intelligence confirms an increased U.S. military presence in the region. The deployment of F-15E strike fighters and A-10 ground-attack aircraft to Jordan’s Al Muwafaq Salti Air Base highlights Washington’s dual-track strategy: diplomacy backed by deterrence.
Strategic Message Behind the Military Move
This deployment is not preparation for immediate conflict—but it is a clear pressure signal. By raising the military bar, the U.S. aims to:
Strengthen its negotiating leverage
Deter escalation if talks collapse
Signal regional readiness to allies and adversaries
Internal Pressure Inside Iran
Ongoing reports of domestic unrest and suppression of protests in Iran continue to undermine confidence in any long-term agreement. From Washington’s perspective, political instability inside Iran raises serious doubts about compliance, durability, and enforcement of any deal reached.
Likely Outcomes
Market and geopolitical expectations are shifting toward:
❌ Negotiation failure, or
⚠️ A narrow, fragile technical agreement with limited scope
Either scenario keeps regional tensions elevated and increases the risk of localized military friction or strategic miscalculation in the Middle East.
Market Impact
Financial markets are already reacting:
Gold and other precious metals remain supported as geopolitical hedges
Risk assets face growing uncertainty
Energy and defense-related sectors stay sensitive to headlines
Bottom Line
Even if talks proceed as scheduled, the path to de-escalation looks narrow. Diplomacy is happening—but under maximum pressure. For investors and traders, this is a reminder that geopolitics is back at the center of global risk pricing.