[Red Envelope] Oil Drop — Guangsheng

Monitoring the market can reveal opportunities; reviewing past trades helps clarify direction. [Taogu Ba]
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Monitoring and reviewing already provide insight into others; the next step is to understand oneself, and finally, choose the right time to act.**
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Stock trading isn’t based on guesses. Those who profit often have either foresight (prediction) or adaptability (following).**

Market Overview:
The three major indices are all rebounding and recovering. During the day, after failing to break the five-day moving average, the indices retreated as oil and gas prices plunged, then rebounded again, establishing a double-bottom pattern. Future dips may present opportunities. Trading volume increased to 2.41 trillion compared to yesterday. Weekly performance: Monday +4,000, Wednesday +3,800, Thursday +3,600, Friday +4,000. After three days of waiting, the market finally rose on the fourth day. Optimistically, as long as hope remains, an upward move is only a matter of time.
In the short term, power grid stocks remain strong, AI hardware segments like micro LED and CPO are exploding, oil and gas attempted a rebound intraday, aerospace stocks tried to recover, and overall short-term rhythm shows the trend indicator reaching a rebound opportunity, helping trend styles regain dominance.
The number of stocks hitting daily limit-ups increased to 67 from 44 yesterday. Success rate of limit-up stocks is 69%, down from 0% yesterday. The number of stocks in the continuous limit-up tier rose from 6 to 7.

Continuous Limit-up Tier:
2-limit: Shun Na Shares (Electric Power), Jicheng Electronics (Electric Power), Hanlian Shares (Electric Power), Zhihui Zhikong (Smart Control), Tongguang Cable (Electric & Optical Fiber), Zhuolang Intelligent (Smart), Wangli Security (Smart Manufacturing)

Looking at the tier: market’s maximum is 2-limit. The anti-index oil and gas stocks in the tier were wiped out. Electric power and smart stocks are starting to disintegrate from the limit-up team. The explosive sectors today are electric power + smart, with micro LED leading the first limit-up.

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Always praise first, then observe; develop good habits, persist, and profit daily.**
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Market Summary:
Trend directions: AI hardware, domestic computing power, semiconductor chip industry chain.
Risk-avoidance sectors: Oil & gas, military industry, metals, energy, etc.
Rotation sectors: Aerospace, robotics, etc.

1. AI Hardware: Currently, several logical themes are active:

• Pre-holiday price hikes
• Post-315 GTC conference
• Micro LED replacing copper cables for cost reduction
  Segments involved include CPO, PCB, fiber optic concepts, micro LED, etc.
  Major stocks: Yizhong Tian Sheng Fu.
  Yizhong rebounded strongly yesterday and today; Tian Sheng showed a high in the morning then retreated, driven by disputes between Nvidia (CPO) and Google (fiber optics).
  Overseas mapping for CPO: Applied Optoelectronics (micro), HITE, COHR.
  1. Micro LED CPO:
  The logic is similar to copper cables in 2024, now established as the best short-distance transmission solution.
  Limit-up: Zhaochi Shares, Huacan Optoelectronics.
  In the morning, Zhaochi Shares hit a straight-up limit, stimulating Huacan to follow. This triggered a sector rally.
  Main board capacity: Sanan Optoelectronics.
  Leading stock: Jufei Optoelectronics, with about 800 million in expected earnings, PE over 20, currently at the sector’s height of hype. Whether it can challenge the deviation or trigger abnormal moves is an important indicator of the sector’s style.
  Other active stocks: Liyade, Yitian Shares, etc.
  Overall, about 30+ stocks over 10cm today, with optical electronics becoming a clear focus. The new story is in AI hardware optical communication, with ongoing potential.

2. Potential GTC Conference beneficiaries:
Previously discussed, no need to repeat. Interested readers can review earlier recap posts.
Power supplies and liquid cooling.
Liquid cooling:
Feilong Shares, hitting new highs with a five-day trend, driven by liquid cooling and overseas liquid cooling dual engines.
Speculative stocks: Meilixin, Gaolan Shares, etc.
Segments just starting, not yet explosive.
Power supplies:
Three types: Zhongfu Circuit (mass production), and others like Weir High, Shennan Circuit, Eurotune, etc.
These are the GTC power supply beneficiaries, essential for future overseas hardware supply chains.
Other power stocks: Magmet, etc.
Diesel engines: Taihao Tech, Xiongtao Shares, with Weichai Power trending upward.
Power supply sector just beginning, with many stocks at the bottom just starting to move.
Other segments have been covered earlier.

Overall, AI hardware stocks are strongest intraday, following the index rebound. Segments like fiber optics, probes, drills, MCLL, etc., have already surged; the upcoming explosive segments are power supplies and liquid cooling. The current sequence suggests cycling through all benefiting segments.

2. Power Grid-Related: Mainly overseas supply chain, focusing on gas turbines and grid equipment.
1. Gas turbines:
From late November last year to now, this has been a relatively persistent trend.
Most are slow-moving.
Dongfang Electric surged on news; slow trends include Yiliang Shares, Jereh, Haomai Tech, etc.
No high-value chasing; slow is characteristic of this sector. Those seeking explosive gains should look elsewhere.

2. Power grid:
Long cycle, mainly wave-based, recently revived due to news.
Multiple wave leaders: Hanlian Shares, currently in a third wave with intraday acceleration.
High on the main board: Yueneng Holdings, with accelerated computing, maintaining high levels after shedding computing drag. Whether it can challenge double its current height is a focus.
Capacity trend: China Western Electric, TBEA, Baobian Electric, with rotation and daily performance.
Slow trend big winners: Siyuan Electric, similar to Weichai Power.
20cm double limit: Tongguang Cable.
Most stocks at mid-to-high levels, with trend and multi-wave forms dominating.
Overall, gas turbines are a slow trend; power grid stocks are multi-wave, with recent explosive points. Tomorrow is likely the third strong day; caution is advised in chasing stronger moves. Most stocks follow the trend; a slower pace is fine.
Shared characteristics with AI hardware: overseas + performance-driven, JG’s favorite sectors.

3. Domestic Computing Power:
Two factions: H-type and non-H-type.
Potential news: expectations for DS release.
Core capacity: Huasheng Tiancheng, H-type, fluctuating around the seven-day line. When to re-enter depends on future signals.
Chuanrun Shares show upward intent; Tai Jia Shares have been extremely volatile today. The sector lacks unity, with stocks fighting individually.
Non-H-type:
Copper Bull Information, Meili Yun showed intraday movement.
Overall, the sector attempted to rebound in the afternoon but faced difficulty due to morning highs and continued strength elsewhere. Oil & gas ultimately outperformed computing power, which then retreated. Future continuation heavily depends on news. Wait for the wind.

4. Intermittent Sector Movements:

1. Storage-related:
   Bawei’s earnings drove speculation. Post-holiday, the semiconductor chain cooled down. Last night, a new player, Qiangyi Shares, appeared but failed to sustain gains today. Future focus remains on Bawei; others are secondary.

2. Aerospace:
   Yesterday, Pingtan Development failed to hit the limit after a rally; today, Aerospace Development also failed. It’s a 50/50 situation.
   Key stocks: Aerospace Development, Gaxin Integration, Julii Sockets.
   The sector’s rebound depends on whether these stocks can continue to strengthen and lead the rally.

5. Risk-avoidance Sectors:
Chemical industry (has crossing attributes, not purely safe-haven):
Leading stocks: Baichuan Shares, Runtu Shares, Jinniu Chemical.
All attempted to repackage gains today, influencing each other. Jinniu continued to strengthen.
Sector remains problematic: high levels don’t break through, low levels are awkward.

Oil & gas:
Leading stocks: Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Tongyuan Petroleum, Standard CNOOC.
Overall, sector continuation depends on futures.
Major oil companies: PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC.
Metals follow external futures fluctuations.

6. Summary:
After three consecutive declines, yesterday’s weak rebound, today’s continued strength, the tech vs. oil & gas seesaw persists.
The current market recovery mainly hinges on overseas + performance-driven sectors like power and AI hardware.
Q1 potential hype is approaching; sectors with poor earnings should be avoided.
Next, observe whether the double-bottom rebound in the index proves sustainable.
Can the power + AI hardware sectors, supported by the rebound, sustain growth?
Previous hot sectors tend to fade after three rounds. Whether power can have a gentle third day or AI hardware can strengthen tomorrow remains a key market focus.
Overall, I hope this rebound marks a new opportunity for stronger gains, improving market tolerance. Otherwise, stay cautious, quietly wait, and do your own thing.

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These are personal insights and may not suit everyone. This is how I currently operate. If you find it unsuitable, just ignore it. No need for harsh words. If it helps you, I’ll be glad.
The bull market in A-shares is ongoing; it’s in individual stocks, not the index. Catching the bull stocks means being in a bull market; missing them, even if the index rises sky-high, still feels like a bear market for you.
Disclaimer: The above analysis, posts, and comments are for entertainment and reference only. Not to be used as sole investment basis. Do not trade solely based on this. The stock market involves risks; invest cautiously! Remember, there are no stock gods in A-shares!
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Disclaimer: This article records my personal operations. Investment involves risks. Trade cautiously. Plans are always faster than changes; follow the market. The content reflects my personal thoughts and records, for sharing and reference only. Not investment advice. Buy and sell at your own risk.