Investors Are Piling Into the 'HALO' Trade. Here's What That Means and What They're Buying

ETHReserveBank · 2026-03-06T22:44:09+00:00

Key Takeaways Some of the AI trade's biggest winners last year have flagged lately, amid worries about the technology's impact. Meanwhile, some corners of the market deemed AI-proof have gained. That's given rise to a new acronym on Wall Street called "HALO," which stands for "heavy

ETHReserveBank

2026-03-06 22:44:09

Key Takeaways

Some of the AI trade’s biggest winners last year have flagged lately, amid worries about the technology’s impact. Meanwhile, some corners of the market deemed AI-proof have gained.
That’s given rise to a new acronym on Wall Street called “HALO,” which stands for “heavy assets, low obsolescence.”

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There’s a new way to describe the “anything but AI” trade that’s been getting traction on Wall Street lately.

The “HALO” trade, attributed to Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown, stands for “heavy assets, low obsolescence,” or assets widely deemed as AI-proof that have gotten a boost lately, while AI fears weigh on some previously high-flying corners of the AI trade.

In a blog post last month, Brown said these are the stocks associated with physical, heavy assets that “you can buy and not worry about” because they’re “undistruptable” by AI. Some of the examples Brown gave included major oil companies like ExxonMobil (XOM), fast food giant McDonald’s (MCD), and America’s biggest brick-and-mortar retailer Walmart (WMT), all of which have surged this year.

Why This Is Significant

Hedging against AI could be one of the defining investing themes of this year amid concerns that big AI investments by major tech companies won’t generate the returns many investors hope for, while the technology disrupts a wide range of businesses.

Through Wednesday’s close, shares of ExxonMobil had added about one-quarter of their value year-to-date, while Walmart had climbed 15% and McDonald’s was up nearly 9%. The energy, materials and consumer staples sectors are some of the best-performing corners of the market for 2026 so far, while technology is one of the worst.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), the AI chipmaker at the heart of the AI boom in recent years, have lost ground over the past week despite a blockbuster earnings report, and the stock is in the red so far in 2026. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) which includes Nvidia along with other Big Tech giants, is down 6% in 2026.

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In a note to clients last week, Goldman Sachs analysts suggested that stock outperformance for capital-intensive “HALO” companies could continue, as earnings momentum turns in their favor. Consensus estimates now suggest faster earnings growth and an improving return on investment for capital-intensive companies, they said, while earnings for the firm’s capital-light grouping are forecasted to be roughly flat.

“Higher real yields, geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain rewiring have shifted equity leadership back toward tangible productive assets. Markets are rewarding capacity, networks, infrastructure and engineering complexity—assets that are costly to replicate and less exposed to technological obsolescence,” they wrote.

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