Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | March 7, 2026

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Market Overview

U.S. non-farm employment sharply slows down, combined with Middle East conflicts, oil prices continue to soar, intensifying concerns about stagflation. Additionally, anxiety over the private credit sector has also driven U.S. stocks lower.

The S&P 500 fell 1.3%, down more than 2% this week, marking the worst week since October last year. The Dow Jones and small-cap stocks led declines this week, dropping 3-4%. On Friday, financial stocks led the decline amid turmoil in the private credit market, with BlackRock plunging 7.7%. Oracle and OpenAI canceled plans to expand data centers in Texas; chip manufacturers saw broad declines.

The non-farm payroll report boosted market bets on the Fed cutting interest rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell about 7 basis points from the daily high but then rebounded. The dollar declined 0.34%, but gained over 1% for the week, marking the best weekly performance since October 2024.

Bitcoin fell 4%, Ethereum dropped 4.6%, breaking below $2,000.

Safe-haven sentiment pushed spot gold up 1.8%, spot silver up 2.5%. However, gold declined 2% for the week, ending four weeks of gains, while silver fell nearly 10% over the week.

WTI crude oil prices continued to surge nearly 16% on Friday, breaking through $90 and $91 intraday, with a weekly increase of 35%, the largest weekly gain in history. European natural gas prices doubled at one point during the week.

During Asian trading hours, the three major A-share indices rose with reduced volume, with Wanke Technology surging intraday, smart grid stocks hitting new daily limits again, Hengke Index soaring over 3%, and JD.com jumping nearly 10%.

News Highlights

China

NPC Economic Thematic Conference: Six emerging pillar industries are expected to see output exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2030. Trillion-yuan fiscal allocations promote domestic demand, and mechanisms for market stability are being improved.

Ministry of Finance’s Lan Fuan: By 2026, fiscal policy will maintain a more proactive stance, with trillion-yuan fiscal arrangements boosting domestic demand.

Pan Gongsheng: Will guide and regulate interest rates properly, with no intention to gain trade advantages through currency devaluation, and will curb “involution” competition.

Wu Qing: Improve the mechanism for stabilizing the market with Chinese characteristics, optimize refinancing mechanisms, and introduce shelf issuance.

Middle East conflict hits Asian markets hard, with weekly sell-offs totaling $11 billion, a four-year high. Chinese assets stand out, with stocks, bonds, and currencies collectively outperforming.

Overseas

U.S. February non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, with employment revisions down 69,000 in the previous two months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%. The “New Federal Reserve News Agency” warns that the Fed’s most feared scenario is approaching.

U.S. January retail sales fell 0.2% month-on-month, the first negative growth since October last year.

U.S. Energy Secretary said they will start escorting ships soon; Trump: No deal with Iran unless they unconditionally surrender. The U.S. launched a $20 billion maritime reinsurance tool. Reports say the Trump administration has postponed plans for the Treasury to directly trade oil futures. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended major Middle East routes. Qatar warns that if the war continues for weeks, Gulf countries may be forced to halt production, with oil prices potentially soaring to $150 in the next three weeks. Kuwait has cut some oil production due to storage space exhaustion.

Physical delivery crisis countdown: Silver may become the trigger for a derivatives crisis.

Fed’s Waller: Iran conflict not enough to cause sustained inflation; inclined to keep interest rate cuts at 25 basis points. The unexpectedly weak non-farm payrolls led Fed’s Daly to say that a shaky labor market makes rate hikes difficult; Goolsbee hopes for a rate cut later this year.

South Korean media: Samsung Electronics expects Q2 NAND prices to rise by 100%, doubling again!

OpenAI and Oracle abandon Texas data center expansion plans; media reports suggest Meta may take over, with Nvidia involved.

Market Close Report

European and US stocks: S&P 500 down 1.33% at 6740.02 points, down 2.02% this week. Dow Jones down 0.95% at 47,501.55 points, down 3.01% weekly. Nasdaq down 1.59% at 22,387.679 points, down 1.24% this week. Europe’s STOXX 600 index fell 1.02% to 598.69, down 5.55% for the week.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4124.19 points, up 0.38%. Shenzhen Component at 14,172.63 points, up 0.59%. ChiNext at 3,229.30 points, up 0.38%.

Bond Market: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.19 basis points to 4.1383%, up 20.08 basis points this week. 2-year yield fell 1.59 basis points to 3.5605%, up 18.56 basis points weekly.

Commodities: Spot gold up 1.75% at $5,171/oz, down 2.06% weekly. Spot silver up 2.55% at $84.3451/oz, down 10.06% for the week. WTI April crude futures rose $9.89, up 12.21%, to $90.90/barrel, the highest settlement since October 2023, with a weekly increase of 35.63%.

Detailed Highlights

Global Major Events

China

NPC Economic Thematic Conference: Six emerging pillar industries are projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in output by 2030. Trillion-yuan fiscal allocations promote domestic demand, and mechanisms for market stability are being refined. The six industries include integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, low-altitude economy, new energy storage, and intelligent robotics. By 2025, their combined output is close to 6 trillion yuan, expected to double or more by 2030, surpassing 10 trillion yuan. By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, related AI industries will grow to over 10 trillion yuan. This year, the central government allocated 100 billion yuan to implement a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost demand.

Finance Minister Lan Fuan: By 2026, fiscal policy will remain proactive, with trillion-yuan fiscal arrangements to promote demand. Minister Lan Fuan stated that this year, the government will continue to maintain a proactive stance, keeping the effort level unchanged from last year’s expansion. The 100 billion yuan fiscal package aims to create a transmission chain of fiscal and financial policies to channel more resources into key demand areas, combined with this year’s 250 billion yuan in old-for-new consumption policies, with greater力度 than last year.

Pan Gongsheng: Will guide and regulate interest rates properly, with no intention to gain trade advantages through currency devaluation, and will curb “involution” competition. Pan Gongsheng said that the RMB’s bilateral exchange rate against the dollar is within a median range in recent years. China has no need or intention to devalue the currency to gain trade advantages. From a financial perspective, efforts will be made to curb “involution” competition in some industries, support economic restructuring and upgrading, and strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in areas like interest subsidies, guarantees, and risk sharing to amplify policy effects.

Wu Qing: Improve the mechanism for stabilizing the market with Chinese characteristics, optimize refinancing mechanisms, and introduce shelf issuance. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing stated that during the 14th Five-Year Plan, China will improve its market stabilization mechanisms, enrich counter-cyclical and cross-cycle adjustment tools, and enhance market stability. A more precise and inclusive listing standard will be established on the ChiNext. Support will be given to high-quality innovative enterprises in new consumption and modern service industries to list and raise funds. Refinancing registration mechanisms will be optimized, and shelf issuance introduced to guide rational and effective financing.

Middle East conflict hits Asian markets hard, with Chinese assets standing out, stocks, bonds, and currencies all outperforming! Asian markets declined over 6% this week, while the CSI 300 index only fell about 1%. The RMB outperformed most Asian currencies, and bond yields declined against the trend, becoming a regional “stabilizer.” MUFG Bank believes that under expectations of steady policies, China’s market can serve as a “safe haven” during global political instability.

• Global funds are accelerating withdrawal from Asia, with $11 billion sold in one week, the largest in four years. Due to Asia’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy, rising oil prices threaten inflation prospects, reversing the “sell US, buy Asia” trend. MSCI Asia Pacific index experienced its largest weekly decline in six years.

Overseas

U.S. February non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, with revisions down 69,000 in the prior two months, and the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.4%. The net decrease of 92,000 jobs in February was well below expectations, marking the second single-month decline since 2020; unemployment rose to 4.4%. The BLS also revised previous figures downward by 69,000. Despite weak employment, average hourly earnings accelerated to 3.8% YoY, indicating persistent labor cost pressures. Rising oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions have created a dilemma for the Fed, with concerns about stagflation increasing.

• “New Fed News Agency”: The most feared scenario for the Fed is approaching. Timiraos believes the Fed may adopt a wait-and-see approach; officials have made it clear they are not eager to cut rates at this month’s meeting, even if data worsens. They say that single-month data should not trigger overreaction, but simultaneous rises in inflation and unemployment are not good. The Middle East conflict could become a repeat of the Russia-Ukraine situation, and the Fed should avoid the mistake of dismissing inflation as temporary in 2021. Wall Street analysts believe the report undermines the view of a stable labor market, but it’s too early to panic.

U.S. January retail sales fell 0.2% month-on-month, the first decline since October last year. Due to winter storms and weak auto sales, retail sales declined 0.2%, the largest monthly drop since May last year. Excluding autos, core “control group” sales rose 0.3%, showing consumer fundamentals remain resilient. Online sales grew against the trend, and actual consumption remained steady. Economists expect tax refunds this year to boost consumption in upcoming quarters.

U.S. Energy Secretary said they will start escorting ships soon; Trump: No deal with Iran unless they unconditionally surrender. The energy secretary said that escorting depends on Iran significantly reducing its disruptive capabilities; the recent spike in oil prices is temporary, and short-term measures have been taken to lower gasoline prices. Allowing India to buy Russian oil is a temporary measure, not a change in policy towards Russia. Trump predicted oil prices will soon fall sharply, having already damaged Iran’s navy and secured the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. defense contractors will increase “top-grade” weapons production fourfold. White House spokesperson said Trump will decide whether Iran has unconditionally surrendered, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment. A White House adviser said strategic oil reserves are unlikely to be released soon. Iran claims its plans for a quick war have failed; on Friday, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on U.S. bases, preparing for long-term conflict and developing new weapons, including long-range missiles. Russian media reports that Russian and Iranian presidents held a phone call, agreeing to stay in contact.

Trump’s first step to protect Gulf shipping: U.S. launches $20 billion maritime reinsurance tool. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) said the reinsurance will only cover vessel insurance, with a rolling limit of up to $20 billion, involving top insurance partners and cooperation with U.S. Central Command overseeing Middle East military operations.

Conflict escalation causes Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to suspend major Middle East routes. The two global shipping giants have suspended several key routes in the Middle East, affecting trade corridors from Far East to Middle East, Middle East to Europe, and Arabian Gulf. Analysts warn that disruption of trade routes is evolving from short-term disturbance to structural pressure, with rising freight costs and supply chain delays impacting manufacturing and consumption, increasing inflation risks.

Middle East war cuts shipping lanes, premiums surge tenfold, oil tanker transit costs soar to $7.5 million. According to broker Jefferies, pre-conflict war risk premiums for ships were about 0.25%, now rising to 3%, with typical war risk insurance costing over $7.5 million—more than ten times higher. Nearly 1,000 ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, with at least 7 damaged; potential industry losses could reach $1.75 billion.

Qatar warns that if the war lasts several weeks, Gulf countries may be forced to halt production, with oil prices potentially soaring to $150 in three weeks. Qatar’s energy minister issued a stern warning: even if hostilities cease immediately, it will take “weeks or months” for Qatar to resume normal LNG deliveries. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices could hit $150 per barrel, and natural gas prices could reach $40 per million British thermal units, nearly four times pre-conflict levels.

WTI crude oil gains further to 8%, reports: Kuwait cuts some oil output due to storage exhaustion. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a storage crisis; Kuwait has had to reduce some oil field outputs due to exhausted storage capacity, becoming the first oil producer to cut production under “tank top” pressure. Iraq has already cut over half its capacity; Saudi tanks face top-out risks within three weeks. Supply disruptions intensify, with WTI rising by 8%.

Report: Trump administration has postponed plans for the Treasury to directly trade oil futures. The Trump administration has temporarily shelved the controversial plan for the Treasury to directly trade oil futures. It is currently weighing measures to stabilize oil prices, including insurance guarantees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, naval escort, and waivers on fuel blending requirements. Releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) is seen as the most direct intervention but faces practical constraints: current stockpiles are only 60%, with equipment wear and backlog maintenance complicating operations.

Countdown to physical delivery crisis: Silver may trigger a derivatives crisis. Precious metals analyst Bill Holter estimates that COMEX has received 52 million ounces of physical delivery requests for March silver, with remaining inventories below 35 million ounces. As the month progresses, the number of contracts queued for delivery typically only increases, creating a clear delivery shortfall risk. If silver defaults on delivery, the crisis could quickly spread to gold and ultimately trigger a $2 trillion derivatives meltdown worldwide.

Fed’s Waller: Iran conflict not enough to cause sustained inflation; inclined to keep rate cuts at 25 basis points. Fed Governor Waller said the Iran war is unlikely to cause persistent inflation and reaffirmed his bias toward a 25 basis point rate cut. He emphasized that core inflation—excluding energy and food—is a more reliable indicator of future inflation. Market expectations are for the March FOMC to keep rates unchanged.

Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly weaken significantly; Fed’s Daly: labor market instability makes rate hikes difficult; Goolsbee hopes for rate cuts later this year. U.S. February non-farm employment fell well below expectations. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the employment report weakens the view of a stabilizing labor market and that rate hikes are difficult amid instability. With rising oil prices and high inflation, the Fed should be cautious about cutting rates. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he still hopes inflation will decline further, allowing the Fed to resume rate cuts by year-end.

South Korean media: Samsung Electronics expects Q2 NAND prices to rise by 100%, doubling again! Samsung already raised NAND prices 100% in Q1; another 100% increase would mean prices have doubled since late last year. Seoul Economic Daily reports that the AI boom combined with supply-side reductions (shift to HBM production) keeps NAND supply tight; other manufacturers like SK Hynix and Kioxia are also preparing to follow suit.

OpenAI and Oracle abandon Texas data center expansion; media: Meta may take over, Nvidia involved. Due to funding issues and changing demand forecasts, Oracle and OpenAI have dropped plans to expand their AI data center in Abilene, Texas. Developer Crusoe is seeking new tenants; Meta is considering leasing the site, and Nvidia has paid a $150 million deposit and is assisting negotiations to ensure the data center continues to use its AI chips.

Selected Research Reports

Hormuz closed for 3 more days; 3.3 million barrels of oil may be forced offline, Iraq first affected! JPMorgan’s latest estimate shows that due to severe imbalance in Middle Eastern oil storage, the forced shutdown window has shrunk from “25 days” to “3 days,” with total shutdown approaching 3.3 million barrels per day by day 8. Iraq’s storage is nearly exhausted; Saudi Arabia’s four key tanks are full.

“Critical point” approaching, JPMorgan warns: Middle East chaos causes real supply shocks, aluminum prices target $4,000! JPMorgan warns that major Middle Eastern smelters like Qatar are halting or declaring force majeure, affecting nearly 18% of global primary aluminum exports. Aluminum oxide inventories only last a few weeks; larger-scale smelter cutbacks are imminent. If the trend continues, aluminum prices could surge past $4,000/ton. Bank of America also sees supply chain fragility, raising 2026 aluminum supply gap forecast from 1 million to 1.5 million tons.

Lobster season, the biggest AI storm yet. Known as “Lobster,” OpenClaw, an open-source AI assistant, is sweeping the globe. It has deep system permissions, can act as a digital clone, and autonomously perform tasks like reading news, sending emails, coding, and online trading. Within weeks of launch, it became GitHub’s fastest-growing open-source project and has spurred domestic large-model firms like Kimi and MiniMax to adapt. From assisting conversations to autonomous execution, AI capabilities have once again leapt forward.

WTI crude oil gains further to 8%, reports: Kuwait cuts some oil output due to storage exhaustion. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a storage crisis; Kuwait has had to reduce some oil production due to full storage tanks, becoming the first to cut output under “tank top” pressure. Iraq has already cut over half its capacity; Saudi tanks face top-out risks within three weeks. Supply disruptions intensify, with WTI rising by 8%.

Domestic Companies

Stricter restrictions on Chinese firms in Europe may lead to “mutual losses,” as the EU unveils a law promoting “EU manufacturing.” According to Global Times, on the 4th, the EU announced the “Industrial Accelerator Law,” pushing for “EU manufacturing” by setting localization ratios, mandatory technology transfer, and foreign investment restrictions. The China Chamber of Commerce in the EU opposes this, warning that protectionism will hinder the EU’s green transition and cause a “mutual loss” in China-EU trade. The law faces internal disputes and uncertain implementation.

Wenhua Technology surges sharply; Amphenol China responds: “All employee work accounts in China disabled.” On March 6, Amphenol Semiconductor (China) announced that its parent company Nexperia B.V. disabled all Chinese employee work accounts en masse on the evening of March 3, causing disruptions in SAP and other critical systems, affecting processes like “customer wafer orders to production.” Chinese IT and business teams have initiated emergency plans to restore key systems and production scheduling. Most operations have now resumed, ensuring basic production.

ZTE’s 2025 revenue to grow 10% YoY, net profit down 33.3%; driven by demand for computing power, government and enterprise business revenue doubles. Under the “connectivity + computing power” strategy, ZTE’s revenue has returned to growth, but profits are under pressure. 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders is expected at 5.618 billion yuan, down 33.32%. Government and enterprise sector revenue, boosted by servers and storage, doubles to 37.222 billion yuan (+100.49%), becoming a new growth engine.

Overseas Macro

Gulf countries may reconsider overseas investments amid Iran conflict shocks to sovereign wealth funds. As the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, trillions of dollars in Gulf sovereign wealth fund commitments face uncertainty. Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar are quietly reviewing and assessing force majeure clauses. The near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities have sharply increased budget pressures.

Overseas Companies

Borrowing to invest! SoftBank plans record $40 billion financing for OpenAI. SoftBank aims to raise $40 billion to support its massive investment in OpenAI, potentially its largest-ever dollar loan. Masayoshi Son seeks to establish AI dominance through heavy holdings in OpenAI and Arm, but S&P has downgraded its credit outlook due to liquidity and debt concerns. With leverage rising and AI investments surpassing $70 billion, SoftBank faces financial stability challenges while pursuing AI hegemony.

Upcoming Major News

China February Foreign Exchange Reserves.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks are inherent; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should determine whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their circumstances. Invest at your own risk.