Live pig prices have fallen to a cyclical low, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. Pay attention to the undervalued agricultural ETF Huaxia (516810) for a rebound opportunity.

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On March 6th, the agriculture sector experienced a rally. As of 1:27 PM, the Huaxia Agriculture ETF (516810) rose over 3%, with holdings such as Yasheng Group hitting the daily limit. Minmin Shares, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Lihua Shares, and Muyuan Foods all surged.

Recently, the agriculture sector has seen multiple catalysts:

  1. The pig industry is entering the “bottom of pig prices”: today’s average price is 10.3 yuan/kg, reaching a historical low. Amid increasing industry losses, pig production capacity reduction is expected to accelerate.
  2. Under geopolitical conflicts, agricultural product prices are likely to rise: rising crude oil prices directly increase the costs of fertilizers and pesticides. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 25%-35% of global ammonia and urea trade transportation. If long-term blockade occurs, a significant gap in global fertilizer supply could emerge, pushing prices higher systemically and forcing up agricultural product prices through cost pressures.
  3. With energy prices remaining high, agriculture is expected to follow and rebound: commodity cycles follow the pattern “gold and silver lead → copper confirmation → oil explosion → agricultural end.” Currently, gold, copper, and crude oil are all at high levels. Agricultural products are shifting from “waiting for transmission” to “cost-driven and safe-haven driven” dual forces.

The Huaxia Agriculture ETF (516810.SH) holds leading stocks in agricultural chemicals, planting, and pig farming sectors, benefiting from multiple resonances such as anti-inflation, chemical cycle, seed industry security, and pig cycle reversal. Currently, its valuation is at a historic low. Investors can use ETFs to position for agricultural rebound opportunities at low levels. ETFs offer advantages like low entry barriers, risk diversification, passive index tracking, transparent holdings, and stable style. Connect A: 016077; Connect C: 016078.

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