- Weekly Bitcoin Price Outlook: Middle East Tensions and Rising Oil Prices Impact Bitcoin

After a slight dip at the end of last week following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength in the early days of the week, surpassing $73,000, while Bitcoin ETF funds in the U.S. spot market attracted net inflows of approximately $1.14 billion over three days. However, this rally was short-lived, as the leading digital currency fell below $70,000 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, recording outflows of $228 million on Thursday, according to SoSoValue data.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the labor market lost 92,000 jobs, less than the expected increase of 59,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above the forecast of 4.3%. While a weak labor market could reopen discussions about interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve, the impact of the Middle East crisis on oil prices is garnering greater attention.

Brent crude oil prices rose by 6% to $90 on Friday, continuing this week’s increase to about 18%. This rise follows President Donald Trump’s statement that the U.S. will not enter any "agreement with Iran except in the case of unconditional surrender."

A study by the Federal Reserve showed that every $10 increase in oil prices could raise the Consumer Price Index by 20 basis points, according to Kobisi messages. This move could push inflation beyond the Fed’s 2% target, potentially prompting interest rate hikes, which historically have played a role in capping Bitcoin prices.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated in an interview with Bloomberg on Friday that rising oil prices may not affect the Fed’s view on interest rate decisions "if it recedes within two weeks." However, it becomes risky for the central bank’s outlook if "its effects become more sustained."

- Why are traders fearing a sharp decline in Bitcoin after a large transfer by an institution?
Last week, a lawsuit was filed against high-frequency trading firm "Gene Street Group" for insider trading, by the authority overseeing legal actions related to "Terraform Labs," the parent company of the failed stablecoin "UST/Luna." The latter suddenly collapsed, marking the start of a severe downturn in the crypto market in 2022.

These allegations resurfaced after blockchain data analysts spotted digital wallets allegedly linked to "Gene Street" depositing $19 million worth of Bitcoin into institutional-focused trading platforms, according to data from Arkam Intelligence. It is also claimed that "Gene Street" is involved in a deliberate effort to lower Bitcoin’s price during U.S. trading hours.

Bitcoin transfers from wallets linked to Gene Street. Source: Arkam Intelligence

- It Looks Like Bitcoin Sellers Are on the Verge of Winning Unless This Level Is Surpassed
Bitcoin’s price may continue to decline, testing the support level at $68,000. The next major support level is at $65,000. Unless Bitcoin closes daily candles above $72,000, the correction is likely to persist.

Sideways trading may see Bitcoin fluctuate between the upper limit of $74,000 and the lower limit of $65,000 throughout the week. The support level at $65,000 is 5% below the current price, while the main resistance level at $74,000 is 8% above.

The two main momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), show mixed signals. It remains to be seen whether the price will rebound; until then, traders should exercise caution and prepare for a week of sideways Bitcoin price movements.

Daily chart of BTC/USDT

Testing the resistance level at $74,000 and a clear breakout above it could confirm a bullish move, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price higher in the coming weeks.