Next Week Preview: Non-Farm Payrolls Released, Market Shakes.

Before the data is confirmed, gold first surged to 5143, then retraced to 5060. The downward pattern seemed to be forming, but the strong bullish Non-Farm Payrolls report slapped that idea in the face, causing prices to spike back to 5174, with the internal market closing at 1147. Currently, there are signs of a W-bottom pattern, but don’t rush—stay calm.

Next week’s strategy:

On the daily chart, gold has been showing a strong rhythm—alternating between bullish and bearish moves, washing out traders. According to this pattern, Monday is likely to close with a bearish candle. But if Monday continues to close bullish and tests the 5200~5250 zone, it’s probably just the usual range: 5050~5250, with repeated tug-of-war.

Keep a close eye on the key level of 5250: if it holds, the big bearish pressure from the March 3rd large bearish candle is relieved; if it doesn’t, expect continued consolidation—don’t think too much about a one-sided move.

Currently, I lean toward a big-range consolidation scenario. Why? Two strong factors: the US dollar is still in a strong rally cycle, and gold ETFs have been reducing positions for four consecutive days. Without these two major supports loosening, a one-sided move is unlikely. Chasing longs now could easily get you caught.

In the short term, if we can grind around 5200~5250, there’s a chance to test 5300~5400; but if we can’t even hold 5220, be cautious—5080~5050 might be tested again.

Trading advice: it’s best to watch more and act less at the start of next week. The W-bottom looks good, but without confirmation, chasing is risky. Especially avoid heavy positions betting on direction—during consolidation, the worst mistake is to think in a one-sided way. For example, buying at 5170 with resistance at 5220~5250 means limited space and quick pullbacks; hesitation could lead to getting trapped.

Wait until Monday’s price action is clear. If there’s a real breakout above 5250, it’s fine to wait for a pullback to add longs; if not, continue switching within the range. Making big money in a consolidation is tough; staying alive and waiting for a clear direction is the real strategy.