Altcoin Season is approaching: Analyzing the index rise

While the broad crypto market is experiencing extreme nervousness, an interesting phenomenon is emerging: The Altcoin Season Index is steadily climbing. At first glance, this seems contradictory. However, a closer look at market cycle dynamics makes the situation clearer. Analyst Joao Wedson has examined this development and uncovered a phenomenon often overlooked in altcoin analysis.

Why Altcoin Cycles Are Shorter Than Bitcoin Bear Markets

Conventional market wisdom describes altcoins as “higher beta” to Bitcoin—they fall harder and recover more slowly. But historical data tell a more nuanced story. Wedson looked at the average duration of bear markets: altcoin bear phases typically last between 7 and 11 months, while Bitcoin bear markets tend to extend around 12 months.

This difference in cycle length has a key implication. During a Bitcoin bear market, which follows its typical 12-month timeline, many altcoins may have already gone through their lows and begun recovery—while Bitcoin itself is still under pressure. This explains why altcoin season dynamics can occur within a Bitcoin bear market, without Bitcoin having fully recovered.

A second point further illustrates this: many altcoins have already experienced declines of 80 to 90 percent or more. Assets that have fallen this far have less downward room to new lows arithmetically—even if Bitcoin continues to decline.

Detailed Index Movement: What the Current 44 Percent Means

The Alphractal diagram shows exactly how many of the top 55 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over a rolling 60-day period. The current reading indicates: 24 out of 55 altcoins are outperforming, resulting in an index level of about 44 percent. This places the metric just below the neutral midpoint between Bitcoin season and altcoin season.

What’s special is the direction of movement. The index is climbing from its recent low. The diagram records two extremes: the pink-shaded zone at the top indicates altcoin season (75 percent or more altcoins outperform Bitcoin), while the green zone at the bottom indicates Bitcoin season (25 percent or fewer). The index oscillates between these poles. By mid-2025, during Bitcoin’s rally to nearly $120,000, it reached over 80 percent—then sharply declined back into Bitcoin season territory by the end of 2025. Now, it is moving upward again.

Relative vs. Absolute Performance: Understanding the Signal

The key distinction here is that the index measures relative performance, not absolute. Outperforming Bitcoin doesn’t mean altcoins are rising—it means they are falling less. The current rise of the index during a broad market weakness reflects that altcoin prices are holding up better than Bitcoin.

This is important to understand: the index measures who is falling less sharply, not who is rising. Altcoins that better withstand a crash scenario show relative resilience. Whether this relative strength translates into absolute recovery depends on market conditions that the index alone cannot predict. What it demonstrates is that the dynamic described by Wedson—the decoupling of altcoin cycles during the mid-phase of Bitcoin’s bear market—is currently visible in real market data.

March 2026: Altcoin Season Could Be Near

The current position is concise: just below the midpoint, but with upward momentum. Historical patterns show that the index can quickly move from the neutral zone into altcoin season territory (75%+), if conditions are right—and equally quickly reverse.

The diagram does not predict timing. It documents what is happening in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin. The fact remains: more of this market segment is resisting Bitcoin’s pressure than just a month ago. The question is no longer if altcoin season will come, but when the critical 75 percent mark will be reached. Until then, the data show a clear upward trend consistent with Wedson’s theories on asymmetric cycles.