Adobe Is About to Report Q1 Earnings. Options Traders Expect a Major Move in ADBE Stock

Adobe ADBE -0.42% ▼ is set to report its Fiscal Q1 2026 results on March 12. The design software company’s stock has fallen about 19% so far this year, as investors remain concerned that generative AI tools could disrupt traditional software models. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about an 8.14% move in either direction in ADBE stock in reaction to Q1 FY26 earnings.

Claim 70% Off TipRanks Premium

• Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions

• Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio’s potential

This implied move is far more than Adobe stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 5.4% over the past four quarters.

Recent Events Ahead of the Q1 Print

On March 9, Adobe expanded its multi-year partnership with Major League Baseball, becoming the official presenting sponsor of MLB Opening Day for 2026–2028.

Under the deal, MLB will use Adobe’s creative and marketing tools, including AI products like GenStudio and Firefly, to build more personalized fan campaigns and create content faster.

What to Expect on March 12

Wall Street expects Adobe to report Q1 FY26 earnings per share (EPS) of $5.87, reflecting 15.5% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to grow 10% to $6.28 billion. The company guided revenue in the range of $6.25 billion to $6.30 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.85 to $5.90.

Investors will look forward to management’s commentary on the adoption of Adobe’s AI offerings. The company is integrating its Firefly AI model into its key products. Also, customers have been upgrading to higher-tier subscriptions to capitalize on Adobe’s AI capabilities.

Analysts’ Views on Adobe Stock Ahead of Earnings

Heading into Q1 FY26 earnings, Mizuho analyst Gregg Moskowitz lowered his price target on Adobe ADBE -0.42% ▼ to $340 from $390, while keeping an Outperform rating. The analyst said investor sentiment toward the stock remains weak. However, his recent checks were solid.

As a result, he expects slight revenue upside to Wall Street estimates and strong net new total annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth in the quarter. If that happens, Adobe should remain on track to meet its FY26 Total ARR growth target of about 10.2% year over year.

On the contrary, Citi analyst Tyler Radke reiterated a Hold rating on Adobe stock and lowered his price target to $315 from $387, citing multiple compression across the software sector. The analyst expects an “uneventful” earnings report, with limited upside estimate revisions.

Is ADBE a Good Stock to Buy?

Overall, the consensus rating on Adobe stock is a Moderate Buy based on 11 Buys, 11 Holds, and two Sell recommendations. The average ADBE stock price target of $399.39 indicates 41.41% upside potential.

Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue