Why XRP Remains Unmoved: Australian License Cannot Overcome Geopolitical Challenges

SnapshotBot · 2026-03-11T01:25:00+00:00

Ripple's acquisition of an Australian financial services license has received a muted market response, with XRP price fluctuations remaining small, indicating the impact of geopolitical risks on risk assets. Although optimistic sentiments emphasize Ripple's connection to traditional finance, the overall risk-averse mood makes it difficult for prices to rise in the short term. It is expected that until geopolitical risks are alleviated, XRP will struggle to break through $1.50, with long-term holders holding an advantage at this stage. Ultimately, the core driving factor is the deep integration with traditional finance, and short-term traders are at a disadvantage in the current market.

SnapshotBot

2026-03-11 01:25:00

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Compliance Progress Meets Geopolitical Reality

Ripple has obtained an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL), but XRP hasn’t surged as expected. The gap between compliance milestones and price performance remains evident. The related tweets have been widely circulated—about 15 major crypto accounts reposted—but over the past 48 hours, XRP has been range-bound between $1.34 and $1.42. Trading volume is around $2.7 billion—stable but not spectacular. The market’s tepid response to the positive news indicates that larger external risks—such as the Middle East situation—are suppressing risk assets, with funds moving to safer places. On-chain data also shows no obvious whale buying activity, reminding us: when risk aversion dominates, a single compliance milestone alone is unlikely to immediately boost prices.

Amplifying the narrative of positioning Ripple as a bridge to traditional finance: Top accounts link AFSL and Ripple’s licenses in the UK and EU, constructing a “global compliant payment network” framework.
Price stability reflects caution: Hourly data shows only minor fluctuations without clear breakthroughs. I estimate that until geopolitical risks ease significantly, XRP will likely stay below $1.50 before April—about a 60% probability.
Calls for $2.50 can be ignored: Claims that “getting the license will push XRP to $2.5” completely overlook the reality of funds retreating from risk assets. Despite news stimuli and conflict-induced volatility, XRP only gained about 0.2% over the weekend.

Social media dissemination mainly relies on quotes and retweets. David Schwartz and others emphasize that “real-world use cases” are more important than speculation. But the optimistic crowd overlooks one point: Ripple has raised $794 million, focusing on enterprise clients and infrastructure deployment, not rapid retail-driven surges. At this stage, long-term holders have the advantage, not day traders.

Different Perspectives on This Matter

This tweet divides the market into several camps: bullish ones emphasize connection with traditional finance, while skeptics focus on macro and geopolitical risks. Other signals also influence the discussion—for example, RLUSD’s cumulative transaction volume surpassing $1 billion, and partnerships in Dubai and elsewhere. The question is: will these developments increase XRP demand or introduce additional risk exposure? My view is: Institutional funds are already pricing Ripple’s infrastructure value in advance, while retail investors are still chasing old narratives.

Perspective	Focus	Impact on Positioning	My View
Bullish on Global Expansion	Amplified by top accounts, UK license progress	Framing Ripple as a global compliant payment network, encouraging bets on the payments sector	I see this as creating real advantages, but we need clearer geopolitical risk signals; the upside is more tangible after conflicts ease
Concerned about Geopolitics	Middle East tensions, XRP only up 0.2%	Funds shift to safe assets, reducing exposure to altcoins	I think these concerns are somewhat exaggerated—conflicts lasting 4 to 6 weeks are relatively short, so long-term views shouldn’t be abandoned entirely
Focused on Utility and Settlement	RLUSD surpassing $1 billion, XRP as a settlement layer	Attracting institutional interest based on fundamentals rather than speculation	This is the core—demand for XRP driven by stablecoins is underestimated
Wary of “Speculative Flipping”	$794 million in funding history, no immediate price reaction	Lower retail expectations, adopting a wait-and-see approach	The market overlooks Ripple’s enterprise-oriented focus; I plan to position for catalysts later this year

This table illustrates how the same news can lead to completely opposite conclusions. My stance leans toward medium- to long-term recovery: filter out short-term noise and focus on deep integration with traditional finance, which is the real driver.

Conclusion: AFSL gives long-term holders and institutions an edge, allowing early positioning in Ripple’s compliance expansion. Short-term traders aiming for quick profits are at a disadvantage in the current volatility. I plan to gradually allocate in this range, with about 70% confidence that XRP will rise above $2 by mid-2026—assuming real-world use cases continue to materialize.

Assessment: You are currently in an early stage. The true advantage belongs to funds and long-term holders; in a geopolitical risk-driven market, short-term traders won’t find easy profits.

XRP2.02%

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