How to Deal with Trump? Get this "Master of Deals Trading Manual"

Title: How to Deal with Trump? Get This “Master Negotiator Trading Manual”

Author: Zhao Ying

Source:

Repost: Mars Finance

Every conflict involving Trump follows the same script.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 9th local time, Trump discussed the Iran conflict in Miami: he believes the war will “end soon,” but “not” within this week. The statement sounds ambiguous, but if you’ve been tracking his approach to geopolitical conflicts, you’ll notice it’s a familiar signal—negotiation conditions are quietly taking shape.

This is precisely the seventh step described by The Kobeissi Letter—an indication of conditional de-escalation. After the market has started to seriously price in a “longer fight,” a cautious tone of cooling down with conditions appears—not a retreat, but a test to see if opponents and markets can withstand the next escalation.

The American independent macro market research newsletter, The Kobeissi Letter, systematically reviewed every geopolitical and trade conflict involving Trump since his inauguration in January 2025, from tariffs, the arrest of Maduro in Venezuela, Greenland negotiations, to the current Iran conflict. The negotiation logic Trump follows in handling these conflicts is highly consistent.

This research has organized Trump’s conflict management into a complete 10-step “conflict script”: from verbal pressure and positioning, to favoring key actions on Friday nights, to risk premiums spreading across stocks, bonds, and commodities, culminating in “trades” that trigger market re-pricing. Over the next 2 to 4 weeks, the institution presents three scenarios, with the most likely outcome still being an agreement—though before that, markets may experience another round of pain.

Steps 1 to 3: From Verbal Pressure to “Friday Night Attacks”

Trump’s conflicts often don’t start with the first missile or tariff but with language pressure aimed at “making the other side negotiate.”

The Kobeissi Letter defines the starting point of Trump’s conflict pattern as verbal pressure. For example, in the Iran conflict, the first strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities occurred on February 28, but as early as two months prior, Trump had posted multiple times on Truth Social claiming “a large fleet is heading toward Iran,” and kept urging Iran to “reach an agreement.”

The report notes that this pattern is also evident in Venezuela and EU tariff incidents: over a month before taking action against Venezuela, Trump announced closing its airspace; before imposing tariffs on the EU, he threatened Denmark and claimed “it’s time” to acquire Greenland.

Step 2 involves strategic posturing and displays of strength, including military deployments and public coordination with allies, aiming to reinforce credibility without triggering full-scale conflict. The report cites Trump’s meeting with Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan in August 2025 as an example—Trump had previously publicly demanded his resignation, but later they reached an agreement for the government to buy a 10% stake, which yielded over 80% paper gains in less than two months.

Step 3 is the iconic “Friday night attack.” The Kobeissi Letter found that major actions by Trump are highly concentrated between Friday night and early Saturday morning, including: the June 21 joint Israel-U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the September 1 strike on Caribbean drug ships, the October 10 threat of 100% tariffs on China, the November 29 closing of Venezuela’s airspace, Nigeria military operations on December 25, and the February 28 airstrike on Iran.

Why always strike on Friday night? The report suggests that if major news breaks during trading hours, liquidity can dry up instantly, algorithms amplify volatility, and panic emotions reinforce themselves. Announcing on Friday night gives investors, institutions, and governments the entire weekend to digest the news.

More importantly, Trump is highly sensitive to market volatility—he needs a time window to observe market reactions and leave room for negotiations. According to this script, after acting on Friday night, Trump often begins hinting at “negotiation” possibilities before the futures market opens on the same week. In this Iran case, that signal did not appear.

Steps 4 to 6: How Markets Are “Educated”

After Step 3, the research divides typical market reactions into three layers:

Step 4: Shock occurs, but markets initially bet on “quick resolution.” The report describes a common pattern: on Sunday night (Eastern Time 18:00), markets fluctuate sharply, but before Monday’s cash open, some trends are “reversed” as investors assume Trump prefers to negotiate and conflicts won’t last long. For example, on March 2, WTI crude oil temporarily retraced about 70% of its gains, and the S&P 500 even turned green, but these trends were later reversed, with oil reaching new highs and stocks hitting new lows.

Step 5: Trump uses language like “long-lasting fighting is okay” to reverse market optimism. After investors buy the dip, the market often faces a counterattack. On March 2, Trump publicly stated “the war can go on forever,” and the U.S. has “unlimited mid-to-high-end weapons.” The Kobeissi Letter interprets this “forever” statement more as negotiation rhetoric, showing the upper limit of tolerance, not a genuine desire for prolonged conflict.

Step 6: Markets begin to formally price in “longer duration.” As of March 3, the report’s writing, Brent crude surpassed $85 per barrel for the first time in nearly two years; the Dow Jones fell more than 1,100 points in a single day; stocks hit weekly lows, and defensive capital outflows accelerated. This stage marks a structural shift in market psychology—“the first decline is bought because investors expect an agreement; the second decline is bought because they see the escalation as temporary; the third decline signals a fundamental change in positions.”

Steps 7 to 8: Downgrade signals and market feedback loop

Step 7 involves the appearance of conditional de-escalation signals, corresponding to Trump’s latest statement on the 9th. The Kobeissi Letter emphasizes that the time window between Step 6 and Step 7 is “highly uncertain”—in the 2025 tariff war, this transition took several months, ultimately triggered by a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields before the tariff “pause” on April 9.

The report notes that historically, catalysts that trigger Trump to back down are either the target actively seeking “an agreement” or a structural market rupture. Regarding Iran, such catalysts could be the collapse of the Iranian government or events with structural impacts on the U.S. and global economy.

Step 8 is the feedback loop between markets and politics. Financial markets have become part of the negotiation environment, as oil prices, stock markets, and inflation expectations influence political narratives.

Trump’s three policy priorities are: being a “peace president,” controlling inflation, and lowering U.S. gasoline prices. Prolonged rising oil prices directly conflict with his goals, especially in key midterm election years.

JPM estimates that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $120–130 per barrel and cause U.S. CPI inflation to spike around 5%. The institution has set three key thresholds: Brent above $90 per barrel, a 5% or more drop in stocks, and gasoline prices rising over 10%. “When these thresholds are reached, the probability of headlines related to negotiations will significantly increase.”

Steps 9 to 10: Agreement and violent re-pricing

Step 9 involves reaching an agreement and constructing a narrative framework. The Kobeissi Letter states that every major confrontation within Trump’s framework ends with “maximum pressure for concessions,” whether trade deals with China, the EU, India, corporate negotiations with Intel or rare earths, or conflicts Trump aims to resolve by 2025.

Regarding Iran, the report suggests that if the Iranian government does not fall, the final deal might involve a ceasefire linked to nuclear issues, regional security arrangements with enforcement mechanisms, or sanctions adjustments conditioned on compliance. “The specific structure is far more important than timing or narrative.”

Step 10 is the violent re-pricing of markets and political victory declarations. The Kobeissi Letter emphasizes that market re-pricing after an agreement is often sudden rather than gradual, because investors are generally in defensive positions—high energy exposure, compressed stock risk, and elevated volatility due to implicit uncertainty.

Once uncertainty suddenly dissipates, these positions are quickly closed. The report cites historical cases from April, August, October 2025, and January 2026, showing that after tariff suspensions or framework agreements are announced, stocks surge sharply, and oil prices fall rapidly as shipping channel reopening expectations are confirmed.

Future 2–4 weeks: Three possible paths (“Negotiations Return to the Table”)

The Kobeissi Letter outlines three scenarios for the next two to four weeks:

Scenario 1: Short-term escalation intensifies, oil prices rise, stocks fall, then a sudden appearance of negotiation language causes markets to rapidly reverse due to overly defensive positions.

Scenario 2: Conflict continues in a controlled but sustained manner, with oil prices remaining high but not spiking sharply, stocks waiting in high volatility for clarity, and an agreement later this month under ongoing pressure.

Scenario 3: Regional escalation significantly expands, including substantial disruptions to shipping lanes or more direct involvement by other countries, pushing oil prices into triple digits, and deepening re-pricing of global risk assets. Given historical precedents and the current key midterm election year, the third scenario is less likely but not impossible.

Regardless of the path, the common theme of this manual is clear: Trump does not favor “eternal war,” but prefers to escalate conflicts to leverage points where he can turn the outcome into a “deal.” The Kobeissi Letter concludes: “Never forget, since Trump took office nearly 13 months ago, every conflict he has engaged in has ended with an agreement. Trump is a dealmaker—follow the pattern, and you will profit.”