Shenzhen rental market heats up again: stable rents, high-quality listings "view and sign immediately"

The leasing market in Shenzhen is experiencing a “small spring.”

After the Spring Festival holiday, Liu Qing began searching for three-bedroom units under 9,000 yuan in Futian District, but found that the available listings were selling quickly. “Many people are moving houses after the holiday. Good three-bedroom, two-bathroom units are turning over very fast—once they’re listed, they’re rented out immediately. I liked a unit and scheduled a viewing for the next day, but by noon the agent told me it had already been rented,” Liu Qing said.

Chen Jun, a real estate agent working in the Nanshan OCT area, shared a similar experience. “Our area is a luxury housing zone, and the rental prices for recently built properties have stabilized noticeably. For example, some units at Xintian Eburg and Xiangshan Meishu rented for around 23,000 yuan last year. After the holiday, prices have basically settled at around 25,000 yuan.”

Every year after the Spring Festival, the rental market in first-tier cities tends to see opportunities.

According to Shenzhen Centaline Data, after the holiday, demand for rentals in Shenzhen surged, with inquiries skyrocketing. The average daily viewings at Centaline stores from February 24 to March 3 increased by 105% compared to early February, with rental viewings doubling. On one hand, the demand increased from people returning to work and seeking jobs in Shenzhen; on the other hand, demand for school district housing rentals is entering a peak period, signaling that the rental market is about to enter its first busy season of the year.

Most industry insiders interviewed by 21st Century Business Herald believe that the recent changes in Shenzhen’s rental market are mainly seasonal, and overall the market remains under pressure. However, some subtle positive signs are emerging, such as in high-end residential areas like Nanshan Tech Park and Futian Central District, where rents are showing signs of stabilization. Amidst this polarization, Shenzhen’s rental market is quietly influencing real estate transactions.

Demand Rebounds

The recent rebound in Shenzhen’s rental market after the Spring Festival is driven by new demand from returning workers and those resuming work. Year-over-year, rental transaction data also shows a clear improvement. According to Beike Research Institute, during the first eight days after the holiday, rental transactions at Beike’s Shenzhen partner stores increased by 36% compared to the same period last year, reaching a nearly eight-year high.

In terms of rent prices, due to strong demand, some listings have seen prices rise. Chen Jun explained, “In our area, newer listings with limited supply—only about 10 units available for rent in a community with over 100 units—are moving quickly. Many clients view one property and have no alternative options to compare, so rental transactions happen relatively fast.”

Chen added that, after the holiday, rents for these newer communities increased by approximately 3% to 8%, depending on location and rent levels.

Liu Qing also felt the market’s “heat.” After two of her preferred listings were quickly rented out, she decisively secured a unit herself. “The properties I was interested in in this area are older buildings with relatively average renovations, but because of the good location and school district, rents have remained relatively stable over the past two years. Still, they sell or rent very quickly.”

Data from Shenzhen Beike Research Institute supports Liu Qing’s experience. During the first eight days after the holiday, 44% of rental transactions were “view and sign on the same day,” a 2.2 percentage point increase year-over-year. Over 40% of tenants signed contracts on the same day after viewing, fearing they might miss out on suitable listings. The average rent for commercial properties in Shenzhen during this period was 73.3 yuan per square meter, only 0.3% higher than the same period last year, showing a moderate upward trend.

According to multiple sources interviewed by 21st Century Business Herald, Shenzhen’s rental market currently shows clear segmentation. High-demand, well-located newer communities have seen slight rent increases due to limited supply. Additionally, some demand for short-term rentals from tenants of former apartment brands has also driven modest rent increases in some centralized apartment complexes. Overall, Shenzhen’s rents remain stable.

A broker in Futian Central District said, “There are some changes in rents after the New Year, but they are also polarized. For example, some older communities from 2003 in our area are still renting below last year’s second-half prices after the holiday, with a slight decline of about 2%.”

A representative from a centralized apartment brand in Shenzhen told 21st Century Business Herald, “Post-holiday, our rental prices are roughly the same as before the Spring Festival, basically flat. However, some districts have seen slight increases of 2% to 5%, mainly because tenants are relatively stable and some corporate clients are less sensitive to price increases, so they can bear a modest rise.”

Rental and Sales Linkage

During periods of unilateral real estate market growth, the rental and sales markets are somewhat positively correlated, but the connection is not strong. As the market becomes more rational, homebuyers often use rental market performance to gauge future real estate trends. Therefore, whether the rental market stabilizes or rebounds significantly influences buyers’ decisions.

Zou Shaowei, senior researcher at Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, told 21st Century Business Herald that in recent years, there has been a certain positive correlation between the two. Under market influences, both rents and house prices remain under pressure, which also affects transaction behaviors.

Zou emphasized that Shenzhen’s rental market fluctuates seasonally with peaks and troughs, but in the long term, it is influenced by objective factors, and the trend toward short-term rationality remains unchanged.

Chen Jun also observed that some potential homebuyers are shifting toward the rental market, boosting short-term demand and waiting for the right moment to buy.

“We’ve recently seen rental cases where buyers are capable of purchasing, but because the market is still bottoming out, they are cautious. Many clients prefer to rent in their target area for one or two years as a transition, waiting for rent and house prices to become more rational before making a purchase,” Chen said.

It’s worth noting that, as the real estate market has already experienced some correction and rents remain stable or slightly rising, some listings have reached buyers’ psychological price points, prompting purchase behaviors.

A broker in Futian Central District told 21st Century Business Herald that some properties’ rents are very stable now, with little room for further decline, and prices have also stabilized after recent adjustments. “We see that high-quality listings are being absorbed continuously. With no significant room for adjustment in rent or price, buyers are turning to the market, which could lead to changes.”

Using this as a benchmark, Shenzhen’s housing market is expected to stabilize and bottom out. A recent report from Guojin Securities also suggests that, from a longer-term perspective, considering metrics like rental yield and price-to-income ratio, national house prices are approaching valuation lows, and the probability of stabilizing or rebounding within the year is quite high.