Huatai Securities: The global steel industry prosperity may enter a sustained upward phase

Huatai Securities research report believes that the global steel industry’s supply and demand pattern will continue to improve from 2025 to 2030, with a potential shift to shortages by 2029. Overseas supply and demand will shift from surplus to shortage in 2024, with the gap widening in 2025; from 2026 to 2030, this trend is expected to continue. China’s exports will be a necessary supplement to balance overseas steel supply and demand. The contraction trend in domestic steel supply began to establish in 2021, and the proportion of real estate demand may drop to 13.2% by 2026 (from 39.4% in 2020), indicating the end of the drag. Domestic steel demand is expected to gradually stabilize. From 2026 to 2030, the supply and demand surplus will continue to improve. Given the ongoing shortages overseas, a certain level of exports will become a “rigid demand.” The global steel industry may enter a period of sustained growth, and domestically, it is recommended to focus on leading steel companies and investment opportunities in carbon-related sectors that will benefit significantly.