Recently, an interesting analysis has emerged regarding why altcoins are not rising. Looking at reports from major market makers, it seems this is not just a temporary stagnation, but that the market structure is fundamentally changing.

The traditional cryptocurrency market had a cycle where capital would flow into Bitcoin, then through Ethereum, and subsequently spread to the entire altcoin sector. This is the so-called four-year cycle. However, when examining data from 2025, this pattern appears to be clearly weakening. The period during which altcoins maintain their upward trend has shrunk from about 60 days in the previous year to approximately 20 days. In other words, it has been compressed to nearly one-third.

What is happening is that ETFs and digital asset treasury companies have evolved into a "closed garden." These investment products indeed bring stable capital, but their investment targets are limited to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some large-cap tokens. As a result, capital becomes confined to specific assets, making it difficult for inflows into other altcoins to occur.

Furthermore, the shift of individual investors’ interest toward themes like AI and quantum computing in the stock market is also accelerating the stagnation of altcoins. While a few large-cap tokens absorb most of the new capital, small- and mid-cap altcoins continue to languish.

To break out of this structural shift, three possibilities are considered. The first is expanding the investment scope of these products. Signs of this are already emerging, such as ETF applications for Solana and XRP. The second is that price increases in Bitcoin and Ethereum could ripple through the entire altcoin market. However, how much capital will actually flow in remains uncertain. The third is that individual investors’ interest might return to the stock market, but this is considered the least likely scenario.

In summary, the traditional four-year cycle-based forecasts are no longer effective. We are now in a phase where understanding liquidity flows and investor sentiment movements is crucial. The reason altcoins are not rising is that the market itself has evolved.