I’ve recently seen people interpret on-chain large transfers and the moment an exchange’s hot and cold wallets move as “smart money”… but to put it simply, a lot of it is just process. In fact, when I map airdrops, I run into this kind of “coincidental transfer” as well: the same batch of addresses keeps getting paid, routed through a bridge, and then redistributed. From the outside, it looks like someone set things up in advance. My method is pretty straightforward and a bit crude: first, sketch out the path—where the funds come in, where they pause, which contracts they go through, and finally who they end up with; then cross-check the timing points (for example, the CEX accumulation/withdrawal windows, cross-chain bridge batch processing, and market makers rebalancing). If it can be explained logically, I treat it as normal operations; if it can’t, I raise my alert level. I don’t oppose mysticism—only that you should first understand the ledger clearly, otherwise you can only go by “it feels big.”