Bitcoin mining companies face the 2028 halving: profits under pressure, energy tightening, industry shifting toward "infrastructureization"

ME News message, April 12 (UTC+8). As the next Bitcoin halving (expected in 2028) approaches, mining companies are facing a more challenging operating environment than in 2024. At that time, block rewards will be further reduced from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, while rising energy costs, record-high network hash rate, and tighter capital continue to squeeze industry profit margins.

Data shows that mining companies have already moved into a “deleveraging” and cash flow optimization phase ahead of schedule: MARA Holdings sold more than 15,000 BTC in March, Riot Platforms sold over 3,700 BTC in the first quarter, Cango sold 2,000 BTC to repay debt, and Bitdeer also cut its BTC holdings to zero in February. Industry insiders point out that miners are shifting from “pure hash rate competition” to “competition in capital and energy management capabilities.” GoMining CEO Mark Zalan said, “Capital discipline is more important than hash rate expansion.” Cango also stated that in the future, operators with scalable operations and diversified energy layouts will have greater survival advantages.

Meanwhile, mining companies’ business models are being restructured—from relying on a single source of block-reward revenue to a “power + hash rate infrastructure” model, including multiple revenue streams such as participating in grid peak shaving/peak management, utilizing waste heat, and fulfilling AI computing demand. In addition, clearer regulatory conditions are also changing the direction of capital flows. Relevant compliance frameworks in the US and Europe (such as MiCA) are gradually being implemented. Coupled with the improvement of ETFs, derivatives, and settlement systems, institutional capital is increasingly inclined toward mining companies that have long-term power procurement/lock-in capabilities and data center infrastructure. Analysts believe that, compared with the 2024 cycle—where profitability was driven by Bitcoin price increases—the 2028 halving cycle may be more favorable to mining companies with capabilities in asset-liability management, energy assurance, and integrated hash rate operations. (Source: ODAILY)