Today, I was still discussing with friends the trend of the fight between the United States and Iran. Although Trump publicly said he would not extend the ceasefire with Iran, everyone generally believes that the possibility of Trump TACO is very high. After all, continuing to take action is not beneficial for either the US or Iran, and Iran's tough stance is also likely to cause headaches for the US.

At the very least, Iran has definitely prepared to restart hostilities. If they do, it would negatively impact Trump’s upcoming midterm elections or his threats against Cuba. In fact, from the recent breakdown of negotiations, it’s clear that Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was mainly due to clashes between Israel and Lebanon. When the fighting stopped, Iran also showed willingness to lift the blockade, even willing to unlock the Strait despite US sanctions.

I think that’s already quite good, but after Iran lifted the blockade, Trump continued to impose restrictions, which probably made Iran uncomfortable. So Iran re-blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which is also the main reason negotiations are progressing now.

Looking at Bitcoin data, although the risk markets have already fluctuated due to the halt in negotiations, these scales are within expectations. As long as hostilities do not restart, the market probably won’t be overly pessimistic. There are only two days left until the final ceasefire deadline. If the ceasefire can be maintained, I personally think the rise in oil prices will also be quite limited.