Last night, I saw that kind of "coincidental transfer" again: a sum of money looping through a few hops, timing just right, and the comment section started conspiracy theories. I’ve now gotten used to breaking down the path first: is it from the same source of funds split into different wallets, has the routing aggregator conveniently switched pools a few times, is there an intermediate address doing collection or dispersal, many of these look mysterious, but they are actually just a few common actions layered together. AI agents, automated trading—these have been pretty noisy lately, with narratives blowing up, but on-chain interactions are so complex that the security boundaries are actually more blurred... Anyway, I still believe: cycles are like sunrise and sunset, move only when the light is right, rushing is pointless.