Lately, I've been a bit tempted to look at large on-chain transfers again, but honestly, before copying trades, I really need to think it through: Are they gradually building a position, or are they using spot/perpetuals for hedging? Many "whales buy in" actually open opposite positions the next second to lock in volatility; if you follow, you'll only catch the emotions, and your position gets washed back and forth.

I'm a bit old-fashioned now: first, check if the same address is depositing or withdrawing from exchanges at the same time, and whether their futures positions are changing synchronously. Then see how many times they buy and whether the time intervals seem like they're controlling costs. Over on Layer 2, everyone argues about TPS, fees, and subsidies every day, but I'm more interested in traces of cross-chain position shifting. The bigger the subsidy, the easier it is to make people act irrationally... Anyway, when I feel anxious, I just jot down a note and hold off on placing an order. We'll talk more next time.