It looks like there's an interesting signal from short-term Bitcoin holders. According to the latest report, over the past 8 days, their SOPR indicator has been below 1.0 for 7 days. This means this group is literally selling at a loss, very systematically. The only time SOPR rose above 1.0 was when BTC touched $70,800 on March 4, then immediately dropped back into a loss-selling pattern.

What makes it interesting is that the supply from short-term holders decreased from 6.06 million to 5.92 million BTC in two weeks — a reduction of 140k BTC. But this could mean two things: they either surrender and realize losses, or their coins have "matured" into long-term holders. Their average cost basis is $89,028, while the price at that time was $67,175, resulting in a 24% gap with a significant unrealized loss.

The key point is, if the price starts to bounce, some holders will take the opportunity to exit without losses, which means selling pressure will continue. A serious market structure change signal would require SOPR to stay consistently above 1.0 while the price rises together. For now, it's still a wait-and-see situation.