Polymarket "The Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31" probability is only 37%, down 9% in 24 hours

ME News message. On April 13 (UTC+8), Odaily Seer’s Seer channel monitoring showed that the probability for Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by May 31” is only 37%, down 9% over 24 hours.

The event contract rules are: if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) releases, on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, a number of transit ships through the Strait of Hormuz based on the 7-day moving average of ships arriving (“ships arriving”) that is equal to or greater than 60, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, the market will be judged as “No”. The daily number of transit ships arriving includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

The U.S. military announced it will begin enforcing a blockade in the Arabian Sea east of the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, and any ships entering or leaving the blockade area without authorization may be intercepted, diverted, and seized. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he supports President Trump’s decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, adding that his government is fully coordinated with Washington on this matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu said at a cabinet meeting: “Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to implement a maritime blockade.” “Of course, we support this firm stance, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States.”

Odaily Seer’s Seer channel continues to track prediction markets, observing changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)