The more time passes, the more disputes about Terra Prime reappear, but this time it seems the market is creating a new narrative. It’s not just analyzing why the algorithmic mechanism collapsed, but discussing that some people had prior knowledge and acted precisely before everything fell apart.

What’s interesting is that this connects to the "10 a.m." phenomenon that BTC explorers constantly observe. Near 10:00 AM Eastern US time, BTC’s price often drops sharply, triggering long leverage position liquidations, which then lead to a wave of selling. When stories emerge that "someone bought before the critical time," social media naturally links these two events together.

The reason Jane Street is portrayed as the villain is not just because "it might be possible," but because it aligns with the market’s narrative. This company is a major liquidity provider from traditional finance, operating with cross-market risk hedging strategies. In the high-leverage crypto environment, their normal actions might appear as "precise harvesting."

But here’s the key point: ETF systems and AP (Authorized Participants) create a "black box" by nature. The operations do not happen on the blockchain; the order sequences cannot be verified. Details are protected by confidentiality agreements. When the market only sees "price drops at 10 o’clock" but not the risk management or hedging strategies behind the scenes, conspiracy theories become the most energy-efficient explanation.

The core of the dispute is the transparency gap. Crypto requires verifiability on the blockchain, but ETF operations occur off-chain. As long as this gap exists, "conspiracy theories" become the best alternative explanation.

There are several possible mechanisms for this phenomenon, such as restructuring liquidity after the US stock market opens or dynamic hedging for neutral positions. The problem is that when you only see the 13F (Institutional Disclosure Documents), you only see long positions. You don’t see options, futures, or off-market hedging. So it’s like viewing only a front photo—you don’t see how they manage and neutralize risk behind the scenes.

While legal proceedings regarding Terra Prime are still slow, public decisions are quick. Incomplete information fuels the spread. Social media prefers a single villain, clear motives, and repeatable plots. Therefore, "screenshots, synchronized timing, and emotional storytelling" win over "backtesting, confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing."

In reality, this dispute isn’t about "who is selling," but about "the ability to explain." Both sides are talking about different things. Explorers see clear patterns but cannot explain them; institutions say they are hedging, but the market only sees the price results. The system enforces "half-transparent" transparency, so no explanation can definitively prove wrong.

BTC in the ETF era is entering a "partially transparent" market. On-chain transparency remains, but core operations are increasingly happening off-chain. When you combine "high leverage, multi-market operations, and delayed disclosures," any patterned movement will be interpreted as driven by individual factors.

The real solution isn’t creating new villains but enhancing the ability to verify and increase transparency of the market’s structural variables. Until more robust verification and clearer infrastructure are in place, this dispute will periodically resurface as part of the new market culture.