Recently looking at a bunch of charts of address profiling/tag clustering, it made me laugh a little and also a bit scared... To put it simply, it can help you "understand a wallet," but it's more like understanding a person's social circle: you can get a rough idea of their personality, but that doesn't mean you can predict what they'll do in the next second. Especially those who label a few addresses as "smart money" just by putting a hat on them, I usually treat that as a reminder, not a signal.

Lately, everyone has been interpreting ETF capital flows, U.S. stock risk appetite, and crypto price movements together. The sentiment is indeed very aligned, but when it comes to the chain, sometimes it's just a few trades or market-making back and forth. Chasing after it can easily lead you into a trap. My approach is very simple: when I see "capital flow," I first ask whether this money is sustainable and whether it's the same group of people moving around repeatedly; if unsure, I reduce some positions, don't get overly emotional, and definitely avoid leverage and staying up all night watching the market... We'll talk about it again next time.