In the past, I would reflexively want to follow large on-chain transfers, like a sudden breaking news interruption on the radio… Now I pause for two seconds first: Is this really building a position, or is it hedging/arbitraging/rebalancing? The same “whale address” buys today and sells tomorrow, looking like market manipulation, but it might just be spreading out risk and using emotions as fuel.

Recently, there's been talk about some region increasing taxes and tightening regulations, then loosening them again. Expectations for deposits and withdrawals fluctuate, and many big players’ actions seem more like “fasten your seatbelt first,” not “taking off.” My current clumsy approach: when I see large orders, I don’t rush to chase; I wait to see how they act the second time — whether they keep adding or are just flipping back and forth. Anyway, I often get brainwashed by narratives… taking it slow is better than chasing noise.