Major Signal! The special envoy confirms face-to-face talks, and the S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs together, while Bitcoin is still dithering around 77K…

The US and Iran might actually be ready to talk this time! Polymarket odds data blew up—on the 29th, the probability of a meeting between the two sides surged to 56%. After tonight, when special envoy Witkoff confirms the talks, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq instantly spiked to intraday new highs. At the US market close, the S&P gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq jumped 1.63%, with both breaking the top.
I’ve said it before: ceasefire or de-escalation headlines are a big tonic for risk assets. Once the US and Iran really start talking, oil prices falling + risk-off sentiment cooling will send hot money rushing into equities first.
But note—Bitcoin has been stuck all day, hovering above 77,000 USD in a sideways range, and it really isn’t following along. That suggests the main funds are still watching from the sidelines. However, when US stocks surge hard, they’re always a barometer; the crypto market often shows a lagging correlation. It’s not that it won’t follow—it’s just that the timing isn’t right yet.
The play is just two words: control your position. Don’t go all-in in one shot; use small positions to set up early, so when an agreement actually lands—if it does—you can take profit quickly at the spike. If talks don’t work out, you won’t get wiped out in a sudden crash.