Did you see that Coinbase went up 12% on Friday despite the Q4 numbers being a disaster? I was surprised because I expected it to fall more. Revenues reached $1.71 billion, below Wall Street's estimate of $1.81 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $566 million versus the expected $653 million. Basically a failure all around according to Barclays.

The crazy part is that analysts are divided. Budish from Barclays lowered the target from 258 to 149, saying that trading and stablecoin revenues are still what drive Coinbase. But Palmer from Benchmark sees it differently: he says the derivatives business is growing, the portfolio is diversifying, and that makes it more resilient in the long term. He cut his target in half from 421 to 267 but maintains a buy rating.

What caught my attention is that Coinbase now has 12 lines of business generating over $100 million annually. Two of them exceed a billion. That’s a real change compared to a few years ago when everything was spot trading. Retail retention dipped slightly from 1.43% to 1.31%, but they compensated with more engagement and cross-selling.

Although the numbers were weak, the company says it’s still buying Bitcoin and is committed to maintaining positive EBITDA. They have $14.1 billion in available resources, so they’re not in trouble. It’s more a matter of the crypto market remaining pressured and retail activity being slow. What do you think, is this a temporary rebound or is Coinbase really diversifying?