Contract Trading Strategy

Short-term Strategy

Long Position Strategy:

Entry Point: 75,300-75,500 (near support level rebound).

Take Profit Targets: 77,600 → 78,000 → 80,000.

Stop Loss Setting: 73,000 (to avoid deep decline after support is broken).

Short Position Strategy:

Entry Point: 79,500-80,500 (near upper resistance zone), observe candlestick patterns and volume dynamics.

Take Profit Targets: 77,000 → 75,000.

Stop Loss Setting: 81,250 (to avoid being stopped out after breakout).

Mid-term Strategy

Wait for the price to rebound to the 80,000-81,000 area; once clear false breakout signals appear (such as long upper shadows, gradually decreasing volume), consider setting up mid-term short positions. Target range: 70,000-71,000 (first target); 66,000 (final target).

Precautions

Futures Capital Management: It is recommended to keep position sizes at 10%-20% of total assets to avoid amplifying risk through leverage.

Stay closely tuned to news about US-Iran negotiations, as this could cause sudden significant market impacts. If talks break down and geopolitical tensions escalate, it may increase demand for safe-haven assets and push BTC higher.

Potential Risks and Alerts

Technical Adjustment: If the market cannot effectively break through the 80,000 level, it may face bearish pressure, with prices revisiting the 74,000 area.

ETF Flow Changes: Although institutional net inflows are currently maintained, the scale is gradually decreasing; continuous monitoring of changes is necessary as they may trigger price volatility.

Speculative Sentiment Intensification: Large transaction data highlight that current market trading is mainly seller-driven, which could increase short-term downward pressure.

Investors should exercise caution and operate reasonably by considering various indicators.