#加密市场行情震荡

#加密市场行情震荡
#FirstTradeOfTheWeek

BITCOIN WEEKEND TRADING PLAN

Bitcoin is trading at $77,510 as of Saturday morning April 25, 2026, down 0.57% in the last 24 hours. Market cap stands at $1.55 trillion. Total crypto market cap is $2.58 trillion. BTC dominance is at 60.14%. Total 24-hour crypto trading volume across the market is $204.80 billion. After touching $78,278 at Friday's open and briefly holding above $78,100 intraday, Bitcoin has pulled back slightly into Saturday morning. The weekend session opens with price sitting right at the critical decision zone that has defined the entire month of April the $77,000 to $78,200 range. What happens inside this zone over the next 48 hours will determine the direction of the next major move.

KEY SUPPORT LEVELS

Three support zones matter for this weekend session and must be watched closely.
The first and most immediate support is $76,500 to $77,000. This is the zone Bitcoin reclaimed on April 20 after the Iran-driven weekend drop, and it has held as an intraday floor multiple times since. As long as price stays above $76,500, the short-term bullish structure remains technically intact.

The second support is $75,000 to $75,500. The 200-day moving average sits at $75,504 and the 20-day moving average at $74,739. This band has acted as institutional accumulation territory every time BTC has dipped into it during April. ETF buying has consistently absorbed supply in this zone. A dip toward $75,000 should be treated as an accumulation opportunity rather than a panic signal, provided volume does not spike aggressively to the downside.

The third and most critical macro support is $73,485. This is the confirmed double-bottom formation that has held twice during the April lows. A break below this level with a daily close would be technically significant and could open a move toward $70,000. This is the line that long-term bulls must defend at all costs.

KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS

Three resistance zones define the upside targets for this weekend and the coming week.
The first resistance is $78,182. This is the level that has rejected Bitcoin four times in the past two months — on March 17, April 14, April 17, and again most recently on April 24. This is not a coincidence. It is a major structural resistance level tied to a long-term descending trendline that has been in place since Bitcoin's $126,000 all-time high in October 2025. A sustained daily close above $78,182 with strong volume is the single most important technical confirmation the market needs right now.

The second resistance is $78,982. This is the Fibonacci retracement level from the October 2025 highs to the April 2026 lows that is currently acting as a ceiling on the daily chart. Even if Bitcoin breaks above $78,182, it will face immediate selling pressure at $78,982.

The third and breakout target resistance is $80,000 to $82,000. A clean break and hold above $78,982 on strong volume opens the path toward the psychological $80,000 level. The 50-day SMA is estimated to reach $78,904 by May 25, and the 200-day SMA is projected at $81,070 in the same timeframe. A move toward $80,000 would represent the first time Bitcoin has traded above both key moving averages since February 2026.

RSI ANALYSIS

The RSI on the daily chart is currently at 62.22 to 62.49 depending on the data source, sitting comfortably in the neutral-to-bullish zone. This is a healthy reading for a recovery phase. The RSI is not overbought it has not crossed 70, which means there is room for further upside without an immediate overbought correction signal. The RSI is also well above the 42 reading that was recorded during the consolidation period earlier this month, confirming that momentum has meaningfully improved. For the weekend session, an RSI holding above 55 while price tests the $78,182 resistance would be a bullish confirmation signal. A drop below 50 on the RSI would suggest the rejection is gaining strength and a retest of $75,000 support becomes likely.

MACD ANALYSIS

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is showing a slight weakening of momentum as Bitcoin approaches the $78,182 resistance zone which is expected behavior at a major ceiling. The MACD histogram was in negative territory earlier in the month but has flattened and crossed into marginally positive territory. The signal line and MACD line are close together, indicating the market is at an inflection point. For the weekend, traders should watch whether the MACD histogram maintains positive readings or starts printing red bars. Negative MACD divergence at resistance where price makes a new local high but MACD does not confirm would be a warning signal for a potential pullback trade.

MOVING AVERAGE STRUCTURE

On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50-day moving average is sloping upward and providing dynamic support below current price a constructive short-term structure. On the weekly timeframe, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are sloping upward, which represents the broader macro bullish trend remaining intact despite the April correction. However, Bitcoin is still trading below its 200-day EMA on the daily chart, which means the recovery phase has not yet converted into a confirmed new trend. The 21-week exponential moving average sits just below $79,000 and has been a reliable resistance point throughout this correction. A weekly close above the 21-week EMA would be one of the most significant technical confirmations of 2026 for Bitcoin.

TECHNICAL INDICATOR COMPOSITE

Based on a composite of 23 technical indicators covering oscillators, moving averages, and trend signals 17 are currently signaling bullish, 12 are signaling bearish, and the overall sentiment is assessed as neutral with a bullish lean. Of oscillator-specific signals, 11 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 9 are neutral. This composite reading confirms what the RSI and MACD individually suggest the market is at a turning point with buyers holding a slight edge, but no clear breakout confirmation yet. The next 48 hours of weekend price action will either tip the composite toward a clear bullish majority or reset it back toward neutral-bearish if the resistance rejection holds.

ETF INFLOWS AND INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

The institutional backdrop is the most bullish fundamental factor in play this weekend. Total Bitcoin Spot ETF inflows hit $823 million for the week ending April 24. BlackRock alone purchased approximately 6,600 BTC worth $476 million in a single week. Bitcoin ETPs recorded $1.12 billion in inflows in one week, with approximately $1 billion of that in US spot ETFs. Year-to-date ETF inflows have reached approximately $3 billion a decisive reversal from the brutal $6.3 billion outflow streak that ran from November 2025 through February 2026. The biggest Bitcoin wallets have quietly accumulated 270,000 BTC in the past 30 days the largest monthly buying spree since 2013 while exchange reserves have dropped to a 7-year low. Exchange reserve depletion at this scale is a structurally bullish on-chain signal. Less Bitcoin on exchanges means less available sell supply, which mathematically tightens the market even without new demand entering.

GEOPOLITICAL RISK FACTOR FOR THE WEEKEND

The US-Iran situation remains the dominant macro variable for this weekend session. The Strait of Hormuz situation is at a critical diplomatic juncture with Pakistan-mediated talks ongoing. The pattern from the past two weekends is clear any negative Iran headline causes immediate Bitcoin selling toward $75,000, while any positive ceasefire signal triggers a short squeeze toward $78,000 and above. Weekend sessions have lower liquidity than weekday trading, which means geopolitical headlines land harder on price. Traders must keep one eye on the Iran news flow throughout Saturday and Sunday. A ceasefire extension announcement would be the most powerful short-term bullish catalyst available. A breakdown in talks would immediately pressure the $76,500 support.

WEEKEND TRADING SCENARIOS

Bullish scenario probability 45%: Bitcoin holds above $77,000 through the weekend, builds a base, and attempts a breakout above $78,182 on Sunday with volume support. Target: $79,000 to $80,000 next week. Trigger: Iran ceasefire extension news or continued ETF inflow reports.
Consolidation scenario probability 35%: Bitcoin ranges between $76,000 and $78,200 through the weekend with no clear directional resolution. Volume stays low, price action is choppy, and the decision is deferred to the Monday open when institutional volume returns. This is the most common weekend pattern for Bitcoin at major resistance levels.
Bearish scenario probability 20%: A fourth rejection at $78,182 on a weekend headline particularly a breakdown in Iran negotiations triggers a flush toward $75,000 support. At $75,000, institutional ETF buying should absorb the selling. A close below $73,485 would be required to confirm a bearish trend reversal, which remains a low-probability outcome given the current ETF inflow data.

FINAL WEEKEND TRADING PLAN

The setup is clear. $78,182 is the resistance that controls everything. $75,000 to $75,500 is the support that institutions are defending. The RSI at 62 gives room for upside. The MACD needs to confirm. The ETF bid is real and sustained. The geopolitical wildcard is Iran.
For traders entering this weekend: long positions above $77,500 with a stop below $76,000 and a target of $79,500 to $80,000 offer a favorable risk-reward ratio if the bullish scenario plays out. Short positions only make sense on a confirmed break and daily close below $76,000 with a target of $74,500. The worst trade this weekend is chasing a breakout above $78,182 without volume confirmation that level has rejected Bitcoin four consecutive times and deserves respect until proven otherwise.
Watch Iran. Watch volume. Watch the $78,182 level. That is your entire weekend trading plan in three sentences.

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