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Quantum computers cracking 15-digit ECC keys pose no threat to Bitcoin's 256-bit security, but the migration countdown is accelerating.
ME News Report, April 25 (UTC+8), Project Eleven today awarded the Q-Day prize to researcher Giancarlo Lelli. Using publicly accessible quantum hardware, Lelli successfully derived a 15-bit elliptic curve private key from a public key, representing the largest-scale public demonstration of its kind to date and a 512-fold improvement over the 6-bit demonstration in September 2025. Lelli used a variant of Shor’s algorithm targeting the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, which is the mathematical foundation of Bitcoin’s signature scheme. The awarded hardware contains about 70 qubits.
At present, no known quantum computer can crack real Bitcoin wallets, and Bitcoin’s 256-bit elliptic curve security remains far beyond current quantum capabilities. Of particular note, on March 31 Google lowered its resource estimate for ECDLP-256 and set a migration target for post-2029 quantum cryptography. Cloudflare promptly followed suit, and the UK’s NCSC also set migration milestones between 2028 and 2035.
On-chain data shows that approximately 6.93 million BTC are currently exposed to potential quantum risk due to public keys. The Bitcoin community has proposed BIP 360 and BIP 361 to promote migrations to quantum-resistant output types, but the biggest challenge remains coordinating across a decentralized network. (Source: ChainCatcher)